Final report for CTIA Global Race to 5G – update April 2019 David Abecassis, Janette Stewart, Chris Nickerson Ref: 2015448-103 . Ref: 2015448-103 . Contents 1 Executive summary 1 2 Introduction and context for the study 4 2.1 Summary of study objectives and approach 5 2.2 Structure of this report 6 3 Industry developments and 5G launches 8 3.1 5G trials and commercial launches 8 3.2 Standardization progress and devices 16 4 Spectrum releases for 5G 22 4.1 Overview of mobile spectrum currently assigned in benchmark countries 22 4.2 5G spectrum to be released in benchmark countries 29 5 National strategies and plans 41 5.1 National 5G strategies and government aid on 5G technology trials 41 5.2 Infrastructure policy 45 6 Comparison of 5G readiness across markets 54 6.1 Drivers of 5G readiness 54 6.2 5G readiness comparison 66 7 Conclusions 71 Annex A Abbreviations used in this report Annex B Country case studies Global Race to 5G – update Ref: 2015448-103 . Copyright © 2019. Analysys Mason Limited has produced the information contained herein for CTIA. The ownership, use and disclosure of this information are subject to the Commercial Terms contained in the contract between Analysys Mason Limited and CTIA. Analysys Mason Limited North West Wing, Bush House Aldwych London WC2B 4PJ UK Tel: +44 (0)20 7395 9000 london@analysysmason.com www.analysysmason.com Registered in England No. 5177472 Global Race to 5G – update | 1 Ref: 2015448-103 . 1 Executive summary Since Analysys Mason’s first ‘Global Race to 5G’ report was published in April 2018, the pace of 5G developments has continued to be rapid. Several countries now have commercial 5G services in place (although limited to certain subscribers, or specific geographical areas initially). As we describe in this report, by 2020 we expect to see around 80 operators in more than 40 countries worldwide having made 5G services available to their subscribers. 5G device availability is expected to expand rapidly in the remainder of 2019. Operators are working with industrial partners to develop 5G services for specific industries, as well as offering 5G mobile broadband (offering faster speeds and quicker response times) to consumers. Key findings Our overall conclusion is that the countries ranked highest in our previous report are still positioned as 5G leaders in 2019. In the top tier of countries, the US has moved up to a tie with China as the leading nations in our ‘5G readiness’ assessment, scoring higher than other nations on most of our metrics. South Korea and Japan follow closely behind China and the US. The US rise in the ranking reflects determined moves by the US operators to follow through 5G commercialization commitments with the launch of 5G services in 2018, aided by significant infrastructure reforms (e.g. in relation to small-cell siting) in the past year and initial 5G spectrum auctions. However, there is still more to be done to ensure that the US retains its leading position, and we have found that a key short-term goal for the US to maintain its leading position is improving the availability of mid-band spectrum. The second and third tiers of countries that we reported on last time have expanded to include a larger number of countries in our latest report. Several European nations are leading the second tier and could overtake some of the countries in the leading tier (e.g. Japan) during 2019. The overall placing of countries is illustrated below. Figure 1.1: Overall 5G readiness scores [Source: Analysys Mason, 2019] Global Race to 5G – update | 2 Ref: 2015448-103 . Compared to the 2018 rankings, six countries have either maintained or improved their rankings, as shown below. Figure 1.2: Overall 5G readiness scores 2019, color coded by change in ranking1 since 2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2019] A summary of other conclusions from the study is as follows: Mid-band spectrum will be important for early 5G deployments and a critical building block for 5G services Many of the planned 5G commercial launches referred to in our report will use mid-band spectrum, particularly in the 3GHz band. Many of the 5G devices becoming available in 2019 are expected to support this frequency range. The US has previously lagged behind other nations in terms of the amount of mid-band spectrum being released for 5G use. Whilst there has been significant progress in the US on other important aspects of 5G launch, such as reform of infrastructure planning procedures (e.g. in relation to small-cell siting), there is still more to be done to ensure that the US retains its leading position through better availability of mid-band spectrum, which is a key short-term goal. Since the first edition of this report was published in 2018, the 5G market has continued to develop rapidly, with many operators preparing to launch services and several launches already announced When our first report was published in 2018, we identified 5G pre-commercial trials being underway in the leadin...
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