Reporter Online at: www.nber.org/reporterProgram ReportNATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCHNBER ReporterALSO IN THIS ISSUEA quarterly summary of NBER researchProbability of an Economic Disaster Source: J. A. Wachter, NBER Working Paper No 1438602468101214%Probability of disaster implied by the historical price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 1890191019301950197019902010AverageNo. 1, March 2020*Raj Chetty is the William A. Ackman Professor of Public Economics at Harvard University and the director of Opportunity Insights, an institute which uses big data to identify and develop scalable ways to overcome barriers to eco-nomic opportunity. Amy Finkelstein is the John & Jennie S. MacDonald Professor of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and co-founder and co-scientific director of J-PAL North America, a research center that encourages and facilitates randomized evaluations of important domestic policy issues. Rare Events and Financial Markets 7 The Impact of Land Institutions and Misallocation on Agricultural Productivity 11 Firm-Level Risk, Lifetime Earnings Uncertainty, and Household Savings 15 The Benefits of Rehabilitative Incarceration 18 NBER News 22 Conferences 25 Program and Working Group Meetings 29 NBER Books 34Public Economics Raj Chetty and Amy Finkelstein* Public economics is the study of government intervention in the mar-ket economy, designed to move outcomes away from the market equilib-rium. The two primary motivations for such interventions are improving market efficiency and redistributing resources across populations. The field is principally concerned with analyzing the effects of various tools — such as tax policies and social insurance programs — that are designed to achieve these aims.The NBER Public Economics Program has made significant progress in understanding these issues during the eight years since the last program report. Between January 1, 2012 and the present — the time period covered by the current report — there were almost 2,000 NBER working papers in public economics. Much of this work has been fueled by the availability of new data sources that permit researchers to study longstanding questions with unprecedented precision and granularity.Rather than attempting to summarize this entire corpus of work, this report focuses on two areas of research: Determinants of the take-up of government programs and the impacts of these programs on behavior and economic outcomes. These examples are not meant to be exhaustive; they focus on a limited, and admittedly somewhat arbitrary, subset of the excit-ing research being undertaken by program affiliates. However, they illus-trate some of the main themes and richness in analysis that have emerged from recent work. All of the recent working papers by program affiliates may be found here: conference.nber.org/papersbyprog/PE.html.NBER Reporter The National Bureau of Economic Research is a private, nonprofit research orga-nization founded in 1920 and devoted to objective quantitative analysis of the American economy. Its officers and board of directors are:President and Chief Executive Officer — James M. PoterbaController — Kelly HorakCorporate Secretary — Alterra MiloneBOARD OF DIRECTORSChair — Karen N. HornVice Chair — John LipskyTreasurer — Robert MednickDIRECTORS AT LARGEDIRECTORS BY UNIVERSITY APPOINTMENTDIRECTORS BY APPOINTMENT OF OTHER ORGANIZATIONSTimothy Beatty, Agricultural and Applied Economics AssociationMartin Gruber, American Finance AssociationPhilip Hoffman, Economic History AssociationArthur Kennickell, American Statistical AssociationJack Kleinhenz, National Association for Business EconomicsRobert Mednick, American Institute of Certified Public AccountantsPeter L. 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