巴克莱-美股-农业行业-美国农业：2019年1月Ben的牛肉配额-2019.1.17-23页.pdf

Equity Research 17 January 2019 CORE Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 18. Americas Agribusiness BBQ – Ben’s Beef Quotes: Jan. 2019 In our January edition of “BBQ – Ben’s Beef Quotes”, we continue to follow the news and data related to the industry. Due to the U.S. government shutdown, some of the USDA information reflects data as published in our previous report. As in the past we highlight important news, major trends in agri-product pricing, demand and trade data. We include eggs, poultry, pork, some lamb and veal – it’s not all beef! News U.S. shutdown impacts research; lack of data drives uncertainty. The USDA announced few farm reports to be published on the back of lack of funding. 2018 was a bad year for Brazilian meat exports due to bans and domestic woes; sales to China and gradually resuming exports to Russia could help boost growth in 2019. Prices & Feed  We remain cautious as we continue to see mixed and unsteady industry and market trends. The overall uncertainty and meat price volatility remain our main concerns, keeping us cautious ahead.  Despite the lack of data available, production and inventory levels seem to remain mixed. Egg production in November kept a positive growth momentum, up 2.8% y/y, however egg-type chick hatchings contracted. With regards to red meat, inventory trends in December were up 1.9% y/y yet placements in November contracted. Trade & USDA  Ongoing negotiations for new trade deal… despite the signing ceremony for the USMCA, discussions continue between Mexico, U.S. and Canada and for final approval from Congress.  …continue to drive volatility and uncertainty in the market. The never-ending negotiations for the trade deal to be approved, the partial government shutdown and lack of data from the USDA makes us cautious in the short-term.  Meat availability still to grow ahead. USDA estimates for 2018 and 2019 poultry and red meat per capita availability at 218.8mn lbs. and 222.4mn lbs., respectively. Our Stocks  We remain Overweight on TSN, PPC, JBS and BRFS; Equal Weight on HRL and SAFM and Underweight on MRFG. INDUSTRY UPDATE Americas Agribusiness NEUTRAL Unchanged Americas Agribusiness Benjamin M. Theurer +52 55 5241 3322 benjamin.theurer@barclays.com BBMX, Mexico Antonio Hernandez + 52 55 5241 3323 antonio.hernandez@barclays.com BBMX, Mexico Barclays | Americas Agribusiness 17 January 2019 2 CONTENTS AMERICAS AGRIBUSINESS .............................................................................. 3 News................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Commodity trends ......................................................................................................................................... 4 Price performance .......................................................................................................................................... 5 EGGS AND POULTRY ........................................................................................ 6 Production & Capacity .................................................................................................................................. 6 Pricing ................................................................................................................................................................ 7 Feed-Price Ratios ......................................................................................................................................... 10 Trade ............................................................................................................................................................... 11 RED MEAT ......................................................................................................... 12 Production & Capacity ............................................................................................................................... 12 Pricing ............................................................................................................................................................. 14 Feed-Price Ratios ......................................................................................................................................... 16 Trade ........................................................................