新能源汽车的技术发展趋势.pdf

kpmg.com/cnNew energy vehicle technology trends新能源汽车的技术发展趋势预致汽车咨询有限公司和 毕马威中国联合出品In association with AutoForesight© 2018 毕马威企业咨询 ( 中国 ) 有限公司 — 中国外商独资企业，是与瑞士实体 — 毕马威国际合作组织 (“毕马威国际”) 相关联的独立成员所网络中的成员。版权所有，不得转载。© 2018 KPMG Advisory (China) Limited, a wholly foreign owned enterprise in China and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.The emergence and sustainability of new energy vehicles (NEVs) require adjustments in old vehicle platforms, which will take time for customers to accept. Additionally, the development of auto technology will drive NEVs to become a major trend. Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) need to figure out how to balance NEV manufacturing costs with technological innovation in order to lead a new round of automotive technology development and market share expansion. NEVs mainly refer to pure battery electric vehicles (BEV), plug-in electric vehicles (PHEV) and fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs).Most EVs use nickel-metal hydride (Ni-MH) batteries and lithium-ion batteries as power sources. Ni-MH batteries are durable, affordable, create less pollution, and can be mass produced. In addition, they are relatively cheaper to manufacture, while the technology behind it is more mature. As a result, large Japanese OEMs tend to use them for their hybrid models. However, Ni-MH batteries have lower energy density than lithium-ion batteries, and are therefore not suitable for pure BEVs. Lithium-ion batteries, on the other hand, are high voltage and have high energy density. Under the same weight conditions, the capacity of lithium-ion batteries is 1.6 times higher although only part of their full potential are used. Lithium-ion batteries are more common in NEVs.The cathode materials used in lithium-ion batteries for most international NEV models are lithium manganese oxide (LMO) and ternary (NCM/NCA), while Chinese NEVs mostly adopt lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. As at the end of September 2017, China has launched 4,981 EVs, with 3,147 (or 63 percent) using LFP batteries, followed by ternary (19.7 percent) and LMO (11.1 percent).1 To improve battery energy density, many Chinese car 1. ‘Catalog of Vehicle Purchase Tax Exemptions on New Energy Vehicles (1-12 Batch)’, Ministry of Industry & Information Technology (MIIT), 2017 The China NEV technology roadmap: Emerging trendsBattery technology, motors and cost development01 New energy vehicle technology trends© 2018 毕马威企业咨询 ( 中国 ) 有限公司 — 中国外商独资企业，是与瑞士实体 — 毕马威国际合作组织 (“毕马威国际”) 相关联的独立成员所网络中的成员。版权所有，不得转载。© 2018 KPMG Advisory (China) Limited, a wholly foreign owned enterprise in China and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.manufacturers have adopted ternary lithium batteries for their EV models, including BAIC E Class, JAC Heyue and Chery eQ. Ternary is the mainstream cathode material for NEV batteries.Major global power battery suppliers include Panasonic, AESC, LG Chemical and Samsung SDI. However, China has also emerged as a key battery supplier over the last decade. Companies such as BYD, Hefei Guoxuan, Ningde Era, TianKin Lishen Battery, Pride, China Aviation Lithium Battery Co., Ltd. and Wanxiang Group, are emerging and have achieved significant market share. BYD, for example, is the largest LFP battery supplier in terms of capacity. According to its 2015-2020 technical plan, BYD is focusing on LiMnPO4, which has a battery energy density of around 150wh/kg. Other suppliers are switching from LFP to ternary-based batteries. According to the MIT's action plan to promote the automotive power battery industry, China's lithium battery energy density2 will reach 300-350wh/kg by 2020, while the battery industry has made a conservative estimate of up to 250wh/kg. Barring any major technological breakthroughs, the improvement of lithium battery performance will mainly depend on material optimisation. Under this assumption, China's lithium battery power energy density is predicted to reach 320wh/kg by 2025.Meanwhile, there has been a rapid decline in the cost of lithium batteries, decreasing from more than RMB 3,000/kWh in 2011 to RMB 1,700/kWh in 2017. Market participants predict the price of lithium batteries is likely to fall below RMB 1,000/kWh by 2020. The ratio of cathode material, anode material, separator and electrolyte organic solvent to the battery cost is 30:10:25:15.3 Cathode is the main price determinant as the costs of the other parts are hard to reduce.Permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSM, including BLDCM), alternating current (AC) asynchronous motors and AC induction motors (ACIM) are the mainstream motor types, with PMSM the most widely used. The rated power of local EV models is mostly between 20kw and 35kw. BYD’s Qin, a PHEV, has a rated power of 40kw, the highest among local m...