�球投资展�2019贝莱德智库供派发于合格境内机构投资者、专业及机构投资者使用。MKTGM0119A-703299-1/16MKTGM0119A-701447-1/16每日免费阅读行业报告1、每日星球内分享10+精品报告；2、不定时分享国际投行报告，脱水研报等；3、行业报告均为公开内容，版权归原作者所有，星球仅分享内部学习。扫描右侧二维码即刻加入【行业报告（免费） 】星球（此页只为更多需要行业报告的朋友提供便利，希望不会影响您的阅读，谢谢理解！）2供派发于合格境内机构投资者、专业及机构投资者使用。�球投资展� ��约�100�专业投资人士受�参加了我们举办的2019年展�论坛,���讨�球经济�景�明��一年市场主题��析经济衰�忧虑�风险,并更�我们对于不同资产的投资观点�主�结论�下�• 主题��国步�经济�期末段,预料2019年�球经济�企业盈利增长�将放缓��着��储的政�利率趋�中性水平,预期��储的利率政�将会更加依赖相关数据而作决定,这使得暂停加息的可�性成为市场不�定因素的主�来源�鉴于风险上升,我们应谨慎平衡风险与回报,投资组合宜选�政府债券��风险,并将资金�置于风险回报水平具��引力的高�信度资产�• 风险�虽�我们认为�国于2019年陷�衰�的实际风险较�,但对经济濒临衰�的��仍�会对市场构成冲击�货币政�维�宽�,经济过热��不明显,并且金融体�风险并未加剧,这�都表明经济仍�处于扩张期�贸易���中�对科技领导�位之争影响市场�绪�我们认为相�去年,贸易风险已较����在资产价格中,但预期若双方谈判出现�何波折都将可�会引�市场���欧�经济增长乏力,中期而言,我们对欧�政治风险�到忧虑�我们认为各�兴市场国家独�的风险��缓和,中国放宽政��助稳定经济�• 市场观点�我们看����于债券,但信心�所下����方面,我们认为具备自由现金��可�续增长�良�资产负债表的优质�更�一筹�我们看��国��,并认为�兴市场��风险回报水平�所提高�固定收益方面,我们上调了�国国债评级,看�其在�期末段防�下行风险的作用� 我们��中短期债券,但对久期的看法转为乐观,��我们认为应增�优质信用债�就投资组合整体�置而言,我们会�免涉足上升�间�限但下行风险�大的资产领域,��欧����Kate Moore首席���略师贝莱德智库Isabelle Mateos y Lago首席�元资产�略师贝莱德智库Elga Bartsch经济和市场研�负责人贝莱德智库Richard Turnill�球首席投资�略师贝莱德智库市场简� ................................3资产观点 ....................... 12-15债券��石油�货币资产类别展�未来展�讨论 ..................9-11�兴市场价值投资�势思维风险 ....................................7-8经济衰�忧虑升温�缘政治风险转�2019年主题 .......................4-6增长放缓利率��中性水平平衡风险与回报MKTGM0119A-703299-2/16MKTGM0119A-701447-2/16FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS. FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.3FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS. FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.S E T T I N G T H E S C E N E3Looking for a landing spotTotal annual returns of global stocks and bonds, 1991–2018-10-50510152025%-40-2002040%Global bondsGlobal stocks1991199920132005199420152001200820111992200020161996201019972009200220042007201720122018 YTD201420061993199819952003Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Thomson Reuters, December 2018.Notes: Global stocks are represented by the MSCI ACWI index. Global bonds are represented by the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index. Total returns are shown in U.S. dollars. 2018 returns are through Dec. 6. Yielding moreAsset yields, December 2018 vs. post-crisis average and start of 2018Asset yields have risen across the board 0510%EMequitiesDMequities$ EMdebtU.S. high yield U.S. investment gradeU.S.10-yearTreasuryU.S.2-yearTreasuryYield Earnings yieldPost-crisis averageCurrentStart of 2018Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Thomson Reuters, December 2018.Notes: The post-crisis average is measured from 2009 through 2018. Equity market yields are represented by 12-month forward earnings yields. Indexes used from left to right are: Thomson Reuters Datastream 2-year and 10-year U.S. Government Benchmark Indexes, Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Credit Index, Bloomberg Barclays U.S. High Yield Index, JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Index, MSCI World Index and MSCI Emerging Markets Index.Setting the scene We see equities and bonds eking out positive returns in 2019. Global growth looks set to be a key driver of returns as the cycle ages. We see growth moderating, but little near-term risk of a U.S. recession (pages 4 and 7). Corporate earnings growth is slowing but still decent (page 13). And bonds are looking more attractive, both as a source of income and as portfolio ballast against any late-cycle growth scares (page 12). The end of a decades-long bond bull market means negative stock and bond returns may become more common. We may end 2018 with negative returns in both asset classes — a rare event. See the Looking for a landing spot chart. The culprits: uncertainty over trade disputes, late-cycle concerns and tighter financial conditions. Trade frictions still loom but now appear more baked into asset prices. We are wary of European political risks and assets (page 8). The key risk for equities: Recession fears land us in the chart’s lower-right.We see potential for a market rebound in 2019, likely with muted returns. Valuations have cheapened across asset classes, reflecting greater risk as we head into 2019. We still prefer equities over bonds, although with reduced conviction. Risks such as earnings downgrades and market anxiety over a recession are real. This underpins our preference for quality companies with strong balance sheets and sustainable free cash flows. Equity valuations are back in line with post-crisis averages in developed markets — and look particularly attractive in the emerging world. See the Yielding more chart.Rising short-term yields are starting to make bonds a viable alternative to riskier assets for U.S.-dollar-funded investors. Two-year U.S. Treasury yields are now more than three times t...
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