Approved by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook BoardApproved by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board , Rice Outlook Nathan W. Childs, coordinator U.S. Rice Export Forecasts Lowered for Both 2019/20 and 2020/21 There were several changes this month to both the 2019/20 and 2020/21 U.S. rice balance sheets. For 2019/20, imports were raised, domestic use increased, and exports were lowered, resulting in a 1.5-million-hundredweight (cwt) increase in the ending stocks forecast. For 2020/21, carryin, imports, and domestic use were revised up, while exports were lowered slightly. On balance, these revisions resulted in a 2.5-million-cwt increase in the 2020/21 ending stocks forecast. The 2020/21 U.S. season-average farm prices were unchanged from a month earlier. In the global market, record production is projected for 2020/21 despite a reduction this month in Vietnam’s crop forecast. The 2021 global rice trade forecast was lowered fractionally but is still 6 percent above a year earlier. Global ending rice stocks were revised higher and remain record high. Thailand’s trading prices have declined from early May, while U.S. prices are unchanged and Vietnam’s prices are up slightly. 0102030405060700204060801001985/851990/911995/962000/012005/062010/112015/16 2020/21fEnding StocksStocks-to-UseFigure 1U.S. rice stocks projected to increase 35 percent in 2020/21Million cwt (rough basis)PercentCwt = Hundredweight. 2019/20 and 2020/21f = forecasts. Sources: 1985/86-2017/18, Rice Yearbook Data Set, USDA, Economic Research Service; 2018/19-2020/21, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA,World Agricultural Outlook Board. August-July Market YearNext release is July 14, 2020 RCS-20F June 15, 2020 In this report: - Domestic Outlook - International Outlook Rice Outlook monthly tables, in excel format, can be found on the Rice Outlook report page on USDA’s Economic Research Service website. Economic Research Service | Situation and Outlook Report 2 RCS-20F, June 15, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service Domestic Outlook U.S. 2020/21 Total Rice Supply Forecast Raised 2.5 Million Cwt There were two supply-side revisions this month to the 2020/21 U.S. all-rice balance sheet. First, the 2020/21 carryin was increased 1.5 million cwt to 32.0 million cwt, still down almost 29 percent from a year earlier. The increase was due to an upward revision—all for long-grain—in the 2019/20 import forecast. By class, the long-grain 2020/21 carryin was raised 1.5 million cwt to 16.2 million cwt, down 50 percent from a year earlier and second-smallest since 2004/05. In contrast, the combined medium- and short-grain 2020/21 carryin remains forecast at 13.7 million cwt, up 35 percent from a year earlier. The 2020/21 all-rice import forecast was raised 1.0 million cwt to a record 33.6 million cwt, up just 0.1 million cwt from the 2019/20 revised import forecast. The 2020/21 import revision was also all for long-grain and was based on stronger-than-expected purchases in 2019/20 through April 2020 and expectations of continued large imports in 2020/21. Specific Asia aromatic varieties not currently grown in the United States account for virtually all of the steady expansion in U.S. long-grain imports. At 27.0 million cwt, U.S. 2020/21 long-grain imports are up 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and unchanged from the year-earlier revised record. U.S. medium- and short-grain imports in 2020/21 remain forecast at a record 6.6 million cwt, an increase of just 0.1 million cwt from 2019/20. U.S. medium- and short-grain imports have increased sharply since 2017/18 due to continued large purchases of China’s rice by Puerto Rico. This rice is sold at substantially discounted prices from multi-year Government-held stocks. Since May 2018, China has sent three or four shipments of about 21,000 tons of milled medium- and short-grain rice to the United States every 12 months. These shipments are expected to continue in 2020/21. China and Thailand each now account for about a third of total U.S. medium- and short-grain rice imports. India supplies around 15 percent, with Italy a regular supplier of smaller quantities of its Arborio rice. The 2020/21 U.S. rice crop remains projected at 216.2 million cwt, up 31.5 million cwt from a year earlier, a result of both larger area and a higher yield. The harvested area estimate of 2.81 million acres is based on the NASS March 31 Prospective Planting report and uses a 5-year Olympic average of planted-to-harvested ratio by class. The first survey of actual plantings of the 2020/21 U.S. rice crop will be reported by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) in the June Acreage report, scheduled for release on June 30. The 2020/21 average rice yield remains projected at 7,699 pounds per acre, up 228 pounds from a year earlier and the highest on record. The yield is based on trend yield by class. The first survey yield forecast for the 2020/21 U.S. rice crop will be released on August 12 in the NAS...
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