1 RCS-20D, April 13, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service , Rice Outlook Nathan Childs U.S. 2020/21 Rice Plantings Indicated at 2.85 Million Acres The only revision this month to the U.S. 2019/20 rice balance sheet was a 0.5-million cwt reduction in the long-grain import forecast to 25.5 million cwt, still the highest on record. The smaller import forecast lowered the long-grain ending stocks forecast 3.5 percent to 13.7 million cwt, the lowest since 2003/04. The long-grain season-average farm price (SAFP) was raised 20 cents to $12.20 per cwt. The California 2019/20 SAFP was also raised $20 cents, now forecast at $18.20 per cwt. In the global rice market, forecasts for 2019/20 production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks were all lowered this month, with Southeast Asia accounting for most of the production and export declines. Export price quotes from Thailand and the United States continue to increase, with quotes the highest for both in 7 years. Neither Vietnam nor India are currently quoting prices for exports. 0510152025010203040502000/0105/0610/1115/1619/20Ending StocksStocks-to-Use RaioU.S. long-grain ending stocks in 2019/20 are projected to be the lowest since 2003/04Million cwt (rough-rice basis)Percent Cwt = Hundredweight. 2019/20 are forecasts. Sources: 2000/01-2016/17, Rice Yearbook Dataset, USDA, Economic Research Service 2017/18-2019/20, USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, World Agricultural Outlook Board.Market yearApproved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Next release is May 14, 2020 RCS-20D April 13, 2020 In this report: - Domestic Outlook- International OutlookRice Outlook monthly tables, in excel format, can be found on the Rice Outlook report page on USDA’s Economic Research Service website. Economic Research Service | Situation and Outlook Report2 RCS-20D, April 13, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service Domestic Outlook U.S. Rice Plantings Indicated to Rise 12 Percent in 2020/21 In March, U.S. rice growers indicated they would expand rice plantings 12 percent in 2020/21 to 2.85 million acres. Despite the intended increase, plantings would still be 3 percent below 2018/19 plantings. Long-grain accounts for almost all of the 2020/21 intended area expansion. At 2.1 million acres, U.S. long-grain plantings are indicated to be up 18 percent from a year earlier, with the expansion primarily due to rising U.S. prices, much stronger and still rising global prices, and expectations of extremely tight U.S. ending stocks in 2019/20. Almost all U.S. long-grain rice is grown in the South. Despite the intended increase, U.S. long-grain acreage is below the previous forecast of around 2.3 million acres. In contrast, combined medium- and short-grain plantings for 2020/21 are indicated at 747,000 acres, down almost 2 percent from a year earlier, with medium grain accounting for all of the intended decline. At 41,000 acres, U.S. short-grain plantings in 2020/21 are indicated to be up 7,000 acres from a year earlier. Just 1,000 acres of short-grain rice were indicated for planting in the South in 20/21, with the remaining 40,000 acres intended for planting in California. The South accounts for most of the intended decline in medium- and short-grain plantings in 2020/21, with plantings indicated down 15,000 acres to 257,000 acres. Prices for southern medium- and short-grain rice have declined since the start of the 2019/20 market year, with global demand for southern medium- and short-grain rice extremely small to date. However, the U.S. medium- and short-grain intended plantings for 2020/21 are up almost 30,000 acres from earlier forecasts, as the indicated area decline in the South was less than expected given the falling prices and negligible global demand. The 2020/21 intended plantings were developed by NASS from a survey of producers conducted in early March, prior to actual plantings, that asked growers how many acres of rice they intended to plant in 2020/21. Actual plantings often differ significantly from intended plantings as both weather and market conditions change. The first USDA survey of actual rice plantings for 2020/21 will be conducted in early June and will be reported in the NASS June Acreage scheduled for release on June 30, 2020. Rice plantings were indicated higher than a year earlier in all reported States—although California’s increase was minuscule—with Arkansas accounting for 78 percent of the 307,000-acre total U.S. expansion. At almost 1.4 million acres, Arkansas’ plantings are indicated to be 21 percent higher than a year earlier, with long-grain accounting for all of the intended expansion. Medium- and short-grain acreage in Arkansas is indicated unchanged at 206,000 acres. Arkansas accounts for the bulk of the southern medium- and short-grain crop. Mississippi growers indicated the largest percentage expansion, with 2020/21 plantings indicated at 150,000 acres—all long-grain—up 28 percent from a year earlier and the highest since 2016/17. Texa...
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