1 Rice Outlook, RCS-20A, January 14, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service Rice Outlook Rice Outlook Nathan Childs, coordinator nchilds@ers.usda.gov U.S. 2019/20 Rice Production Estimate Lowered 3.3 Million Cwt to 184.7 Million Cwt The U.S. 2019/20 total supply forecast was lowered 1 percent this month to 259.6 million cwt as a 2-percent reduction in the production estimate to 184.7 million cwt was more than offset a 2- percent increase in imports to a record 30.1 million cwt. On the 2019/20 use side, domestic and residual use was increased 2.0 million cwt to 133.0 million, and the export forecast was increased 0.5 million cwt to 98.0 million. On balance, these revisions reduced the 2019/20 ending stocks forecast by 5.3 million cwt to 28.6 million. The long-grain season-average price (SAFP) forecast was increased; the California SAFP was lowered. In the global rice market, Thailand’s 2019/20 production forecast was lowered 10 percent to 18.5 million tons based on a sharply reduced drought-impacted dry-season crop. Calendar year 2020 export forecasts for India and Pakistan were raised, while Thailand’s was lowered. Thailand’s and U.S. trading prices rose over the past month. Vietnam’s prices changed little and remain quite competitive. 0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.005101520251995/962000/0120005/062010/112015/162019/20fProductionHarvested AreaFigure 1Thailand's 2019/20 rice production is projected to be the smallest since the 2015/16 drought-reduced cropMillion tons (milled basis)Million hectares2019/20f = forecast. Sources: Production, Supply, and Distribution database,USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service.Market YearApproved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Next release is February 13, 2020 RCS-20A | January 14, 2020 In this report: - Domestic Outlook- International OutlookEconomic Research Service | Situation and Outlook Report Rice Outlook monthly tables, in excel format, can be found on the Rice Outlook report page on USDA’s Economic Research Service website. 2 Rice Outlook, RCS-20A, January 14, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service Domestic Outlook U.S. 2019/20 Yield Estimate Lowered 116 Pounds per Acre There were several supply-side revisions this month to the 2019/20 U.S. rice balance sheet. First, the 2019/20 U.S. production estimate was lowered almost 2 percent to 184.7 million cwt, 17.5 percent smaller than the 2018/19 crop. This month’s downward revision in the 2019/20 production forecast was primarily due to a 116-pound per acre reduction in the average yield to 7,471 pounds per acre, almost 3 percent below a year earlier. The 2019/20 harvested area estimate was lowered 5,000 acres this month to 2.47 million acres, 15 percent smaller than a year earlier. The substantial year-to-year reduction in rice harvested area was mostly due to excessive rainfall in much of the South that led to historically high preventive plantings, especially in the Delta, delayed and hampered field operations and applications across the South, and adversely impacted rice yields in most southern States. By class, the 2019/20 U.S. long-grain crop estimate was lowered 1.5 million cwt this month to 125.6 million cwt, 23 percent smaller than a year earlier and the smallest since 2011/12. The substantial decline in long-grain production in 2019/20 is mostly due to a 20.5-percent decline in harvested area to 1.73 million acres. The 2019/20 long-grain yield estimate of 7,261 pounds per acre is 3.4 percent below a year earlier and the lowest since 2016/17. Nearly all U.S. long-grain rice is grown in the South, with the Delta the largest producing region. The 2019/20 combined U.S. medium- and short-grain crop estimate was lowered 1.8 million cwt to 59.1 million cwt, down 2 percent from a year earlier. The 2019/20 medium- and short-grain yield estimate of 7,959 pounds per acre is 3 percent lower than a year earlier and the lowest since 2012/13. Yields declined for medium-grain rice in all reported States in 2019/20, with Texas reporting the largest drop. At 742,000 acres, U.S. medium- and short-grain harvested acreage is down 1 percent from a year earlier, with California accounting for all of the decline. In contrast, at 256,000 acres, southern medium- and short-grain acreage is up 6 percent from 2018/19. California typically produces around 70 percent of the U.S. medium- and short-grain crop, achieving yields substantially above southern medium- and short-grain rice. Arkansas produces the bulk of the southern medium- and short-grain crop, and Louisiana grows most of the remainder. Harvested area estimates for 2019/20 were lowered slightly this month for Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas, but raised slightly for California. State harvested area revisions were 1,000-4,000 acres, yielding a net reduction in U.S. harvested area of just 5,000 acres. Yield estimates were lowered this month by around 3 percent for California, Louisiana, and Texas, reduced almost 2 percent for Texas, and dropped just fractionally for Arkansas. Mississipp...
发表评论取消回复