JOBS WORKING PAPERIssue No. 40The Future of Work in Agriculture- Some ReflectionsLuc Christiaensen, Zachariah Rutledge, and J. Edward TaylorPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized The Future of Work in Agriculture - Some Reflections* Luc Christiaensen, Zachariah Rutledge, and J. Edward Taylor March 10, 2020 Abstract: As countries develop (and food saturation takes hold), agriculture’s role as domestic employer declines. But the broader agri-food system (AFS) also expands, and the scope for agriculture-related job creation shifts beyond the farm. Historically, technological revolutions both have shaped and have been shaped by these dynamics. Today, a digital revolution is taking hold, affecting agricultural labor and skill demands. In this process, societies evolve from having a surplus to a shortage of domestic farm labor, typically met largely by foreign agricultural wage workers. Yet, anti-immigration sentiments are flying high in migrant-destination countries, and robots in the fields and packing plants offer an alternative. Agricultural trade may be similarly challenged. In the world’s poorest countries, particularly in Africa, labor productivity in agriculture remains at historically low levels. So, what can the role of agriculture as a source of employment be in the future? This viewpoint elaborates on these trends and reviews a number of policy options, including inclusive value chain development, better immigration policies, social insurance schemes and ramp up in agricultural education and extension. * Luc Christiaensen (lchristiaensen@worldbank.org), World Bank; Zachariah Rutledge (zjrutledge@ucdavis.edu) University of California Davis, J. Edward Taylor (taylor@primal.ucdavis.edu) University of California Davis. This paper builds on the World Bank / IFAD / UC Davis workshop on The Future of Work in Agriculture held at The World Bank, Washington DC, March 19-20, 2019. The papers are available at https://farmlabor.ucdavis.edu/future-work-agriculture-conference. We thank all of the workshop participants for their contributions and the insightful discussions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of our respective institutions. 2 Introduction Agriculture has been a major employer across the globe and is at the center of discussions about poverty reduction and economic development. As countries develop (and food saturation takes hold), agriculture’s role as employer declines (Timmer 1988). The farm workforce becomes older, more wage-oriented, and more immigrant.1 At the same time, the broader agri-food system (AFS) expands, and the scope for agriculture-related job creation shifts beyond the farm. The income elasticity of demand for food declines, but urban consumers with rising incomes demand more protein- and nutrient-rich foods, as well as foods that are more processed and convenient. These dynamics have been observed across countries throughout history. They are broadly known as the structural transformation (from agriculture to non-agriculture) and the agricultural/dietary transformation (from unprocessed subsistence staples to processed market purchased non-staples). Often, they are accompanied by deeply wrought societal change and ineffective policy responses, including agricultural protectionism (Anderson 2010; Christiaensen 2013). Technological revolutions both shape and are shaped by these dynamics (Hayami and Ruttan 1978). Examples include steam power, railways and tractors in the 19th century and electricity and cold storage in the 20th century. The current century is witnessing a rapidly-unfolding digital revolution (automation, artificial intelligence, and information and communications technology), with another energy revolution (solar, mini-grids) just around the corner. These technological advancements of the 21st century are affecting the structural and agricultural transformations across the globe in new and unprecedented ways. They dramatically reduce transaction costs in input, factor and output markets; they change economies of scale; and they modify the optimal capital/labor mix in agricultural production, processing, and marketing. This has the potential to profoundly alter the global organization of the food system as well as labor and skill demands. Because agricultural tasks are arguably more automatable (routine and less cognitive) than those in industry and services (Schlogl and Summer 2020), automation could accelerate the exit of labor out of agriculture in developing countries and transform farms and food processors in the developed world. A future with robots in the fields and packing plants, together with “tekked up” farmworkers to complement new technological solutions in specific commodities and tasks, already is taking shape. Historically, societies typically evolved from a surplus to a shortage of domestic farm labor as they developed. More often than not in developed cou...
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