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Our team of analysts and experts produce regular thought-leading research reports across a range of industry topics.www.gsmaintelligence.cominfo@gsmaintelligence.comContentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARY21INDUSTRY OVERVIEW61.1CIS: a highly penetrated region71.24G adoption surging across the region101.35G launches in sight121.4Smartphones driving data traffic growth161.5Financials: revenue outlook stabilising182MOBILE DRIVING GROWTH AND INNOVATION IN CIS212.1Scaling IoT222.2E-commerce242.32.42.5Investing in grassroots innovationBlockchainOther areas of innovation by mobile operators2627283FOSTERING DEVELOPMENT OF THE DIGITAL ECONOMY303.1Spectrum for 5G313.2Deployment procedures and provisions323.33.4Network architecture regulationNetwork neutrality and data regulation3334Contents1A highly penetrated region, but limited growth aheadExecutive SummaryThe Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region is one of the most highly penetrated in the world, with 80% of the population subscribing to mobile services. This positions it just behind other developed market regions such as Europe (85%) and Northern America (84%) but well ahead of both Latin America and Asia Pacific (both 67%) and the global average of 66%. However, the region is diverse, with the headline numbers masking markets at different stages of development. Subscriber penetration rates range from 60% in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to 89% in Russia.At the end of 2017, the region was home to 232 million unique mobile subscribers. The three largest markets – Russia, the Ukraine and Uzbekistan – together account for 80% of the region’s total subscriber base. Given the relatively high level of penetration, growth over the next few years will be limited. The region will see only a 2 percentage-point increase in penetration by 2025. Only Northern America will see a smaller increase in penetration over this time. Almost half the additional subscribers will come from Uzbekistan, a country that is the third most populous but one of the least penetrated in the region. By 2025, there will be 242 million unique subscribers in the region, accounting for 82% of the population. Note: we use the term CIS in this report to refer to the Commonwealth of Independent States, including Russia. See page 14 for a full list of countries.Executive Summary2The Mobile Economy Russia & CIS 20184G growing rapidly; 5G launches on the horizonLed by the move to 4G, the CIS region is continuing to see a rapid shift to mobile broadband. 4G as a proportion of the connections base tripled over a two-year period to reach 16% at the end of 2017, largely driven by Russia, which was one of the first countries in the region to launch 4G in 2012. 4G will overtake 2G as a proportion of connections in early 2020, will become the leading mobile technology in 2021, and will account for over half and then two-thirds of total connections by 2022 and 2025 respectively.The region will be a fast follower in terms of 5G, with network launches expected in Russia from around the end of 2020. Rollout will be rel...
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