Korn Ferry-未来的工作——全球人才荟萃（英文）-2019.2-52页.pdf

THE GLOBAL TALENT CRUNCHA global talent crisis could cost nations trillions of dollars in unrealized annual revenues, new Korn Ferry study finds.The talent crunch—an imminent skilled labor shortage affecting both developed and developing economies—could ultimately shift the global balance of economic power by 2030 if left unaddressed.FUTURE OF WORK每日免费阅读行业报告1、每日星球内分享10+精品报告；2、不定时分享国际投行报告，脱水研报等；3、行业报告均为公开内容，版权归原作者所有，星球仅分享内部学习。扫描右侧二维码即刻加入【行业报告（免费） 】星球（此页只为更多需要行业报告的朋友提供便利，希望不会影响您的阅读，谢谢理解！）WHAT’S INSIDEIntroduction.Overview: The global perspective.The sector perspective:Financial and business services.Technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT).Manufacturing.The regional perspective:The Americas. Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA). Asia Pacific.The last word.2About this study.This study estimates the impending talent crunch by modeling the gap between future labor supply and demand. We uncover the extent of the talent shortfall in 20 major economies at three milestones: 2020, 2025, and 2030. The model focuses on three knowledge-intensive sectors within each market that act as critical drivers of global economic growth: financial and business services; technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT); and manufacturing, and also examines the remainder of each economy. Using level of education as a commonly accepted proxy for skills, and taking into account forecast productivity gains, the study uses available data to forecast shortages for highly skilled, mid-skilled, and low-skilled workers to reveal an imminent talent crunch.3A major crisis is looming over organizations and economies throughout the world. By 2030, demand for skilled workers will outstrip supply, resulting in a global talent shortage of more than 85.2 million people. Signs are already emerging that within two years there won’t be enough talent to go around. In countries with low unemployment and booming manufacturing production, including the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, a labor shortage has already accelerated automation and increased use of robotics—not to replace people, but because there aren’t enough of them to fill the factories. Left unchecked, the financial impact of this talent shortage could reach $8.452 trillion in unrealized annual revenue by 2030, equivalent to the combined GDP of Germany and Japan. The United States alone could miss out on $1.748 trillion in revenue due to labor shortages, or roughly 6% of its entire economy. While leaders are betting heavily on technology for future growth—a 2016 Korn Ferry survey found that 67% of CEOs believe technology will be their chief value generator in the future of work—they cannot discount the value of human capital. Even companies that are using more robotics foresee a growing need for human talent with advanced skills; for example, redeploying people from the factory floor, where robots can perform repetitive work, to the research laboratory. The problem, however, is the mismatch between technological advances, including automation, artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learning, and the skills and experience workers need to leverage these advanced tools. Technology cannot deliver the promised productivity gains if there are not enough human workers with the right skills. This has set the scene for a global talent crunch.The talent crunch, as modeled in this study, refers to the gap between talent supply and demand at three critical milestones: 2020, 2025, and 2030. This report seeks to help leaders successfully plan and execute on their strategies, despite the risk, by examining the scale, impact, and timing of the talent crunch and what it means for organizations over the long term. For this study, we assessed the talent-supply gap in 20 developed and developing economies across the Americas (Brazil, Mexico, the United States), Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA; France, Germany, the Netherlands, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom), and Asia Pacific (Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand). What we found is that global growth, demographic trends, underskilled workforces, and tightening immigration mean that even significant productivity leaps enabled by technological advances will be insufficient to prevent the talent crunch.More granularly, we examined talent supply and demand in each of the 20 economies as a whole and within three major knowledge-intensive industries—financial and business services (including insurance and real estate), technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), and manufacturing—and at three distinct skill levels, referenced throughout as: 1. Highly skilled workers (Level A): These individuals have completed post-secondary education, such as college or university, or a high-level trade college qualification.2. Mid-skilled workers (Level B): These individuals have attained upper secondary education, such as high school, or a l...