Approved by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook COVID-19 Infects Laborforces in U.S. Meat Processing Plants, Disrupting April Production Since early April, COVID-19 infections of animal processing plant laborforces have disrupted beef, pork, broiler, and turkey production in the United States. The figure below compares preliminary estimated federally inspected April 2020 production levels to those of a year earlier. It is notable that each meat category shows a year-over-year decline. Estimated pork production in April—2.3 billion pounds—fell more than 11 percent below a year earlier, as hog processing plants in several States reduced throughput (with some plants shutting down temporarily) due to COVID-19-related labor shortages. Estimated federally inspected beef production in April, at about 1.8 billion pounds, is almost 21 percent lower than the volume produced in April 2019. COVID-19 contagion of poultry processing plant employees caused year-over-year reductions in broiler and turkey production in April, as well. Estimated April 2020 broiler production—3.27 billion pounds—was 2 percent below production in April 2019, and turkey production fell 8.3 percent to 420 million pounds this year from a year earlier. 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0April 2019April 2020April federally inspected production, 2019 and 2020:* Pork, beef, broilers, and turkeyBillion lbs.PorkBeefBroilersTurkey*Estimated.Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statisics Service and Agricultural Marketing Service.Economic Research Service | Situation and Outlook Report Next release is June 17, 2020 LDP-M-311 | May 18, 2020 每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。。 2 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, LDP-M-311, May 18, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service Beef/Cattle: While beef production had its strongest levels in early 2020, slaughter levels are expected to restrict beef production for the rest of the year due to COVID-19 challenges at meatpacking facilities. However, slaughter capacity is expected to recover in 2021, and beef production is expected to set a record. Despite strong first-quarter 2020 beef imports, the forecast for the rest of the year was revised lower on tighter expected beef supplies in Oceania. Imports are expected to recover in the second half of 2021. Beef exports in first-quarter 2020 reached record levels, but tighter expected domestic supplies and global economic uncertainty drags down the forecast for rest of 2020. Exports are expected to rebound in 2021, at almost 9 percent higher than 2020. Cattle imports and exports in 2020 are expected to be lower than the previous year but to recover slightly in 2021. Lamb/Sheep: 2020 first-quarter production was higher than forecast. The forecasts for the rest of the quarters for 2020 were raised as well. Reported lamb prices have declined substantially since the end of April. Lamb price forecasts have been lowered for the last three quarters of 2020. Dairy: The all-milk price forecast for 2020 is $14.55 per hundredweight (cwt), an increase from last month’s forecast of $14.35 per cwt. The milk production forecast has been raised by 0.2 billion pounds to 222.4 billion. Export forecasts for 2020 have been raised by 0.3 billion pounds on a milk-fat milk-equivalent basis and by 2.3 billion pounds on a skim-solids milk-equivalent basis. For 2021, milk production is forecast to grow to 224.1 billion pounds, and the all-milk price forecast is $15.00 per cwt. Pork/Hogs: Due to COVID-19-related labor disruptions in pork processing plants, 2020 pork production is reduced 1.6 billion pounds from last month’s forecast to 27.4 billion pounds, nearly 1 percent below production in 2019. The virus will likely constrain processing plant throughput to some degree into 2021, with total pork production forecast at about 28.2 billion pounds, almost 3 percent above the current 2020 forecast. Lower U.S. pork production, increases in pork prices, and declines in world economic growth are expected to temper U.S. pork export growth for the balance of 2020 to 7.15 billion pounds, 327 million pounds below last month’s forecast but 13 percent above 2019. Exports in 2021 are expected to rebound modestly to 7.3 billion pounds, about 2 percent higher than the 2020 forecast. Lower production, exports, and ending stocks imply a decline in 2020 per capita pork disappearance to 49.7 pounds, about 5 percent below 2019. For next year, disappearance is calculated at 50.8 pounds per capita, about 2 percent above the 2020 forecast. ERS composite values for 2020 and 2021 retail pork will likely average in the mid-$3.90s. Poultry/Eggs: The 2020 broiler production forecast was decreased on slower processing volumes and hatchery data, as well as expectations for continued weakness in demand. The broiler price forecast was decreased as prices are anticipated to remain soft for the remainder of 2020, ...
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