美国农业部-美股-农业行业-美国糖与甜味剂展望-20200518-16页.pdf

Approved by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook Michael McConnell, coordinator David Olson, contributor U.S. Sugar Production Projected To Increase in 2020/21, Raising Sugar Supplies Sugar production in North America is expected to increase in 2020/21, as sugarbeet and sugarcane growers in the United States and Mexico are expected to see more normal weather conditions and better crop production. As a result, the United States is projected to import less sugar in 2020/21. Imports from Mexico, however, are projected to be higher. U.S. domestic deliveries in 2020/21 are projected to be flat with the current 2019/20 estimates. The strong pace of deliveries in the United States through the first half of 2019/20 is clouded by economic uncertainties and drastic changes to food marketing channels due to COVID-19. 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,0002006/072007/082008/092009/102010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/20(est.)2020/21(proj.)1,000 STRVU.S. sugar production and imports, 2006/07 to 2020/21Total productionTotal importsNote: Short tons, raw value (STRV)Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board.Economic Research Service | Situation and Outlook Report Next release is June 17, 2020 SSS-M-381 | May 18, 2020 每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。。 2 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook, SSS-M-381, May 18, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service United States Outlook U.S. Sugar Supplies Projected To Rebound in 2020/21, as Domestic Production Increases From Previous Year In the USDA’s May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the United States total sugar supply for 2020/21 is projected to be 13.733 million short tons, raw value (STRV). This would a 1.4-percent increase from the 2019/20 estimate. Domestic production is projected to be 9.005 million STRV—increasing 10.9 percent from the current year’s relatively low production levels. Higher production more than offsets the 8.0-percent year-over-year decline in projected imports. Table 1: U.S. sugar: Supply and use, by fiscal year (Oct./Sept.), May 2020Items2019/202020/212019/202020/21(estimate)(forecast)(estimate)(forecast)Beginning stocks 2,0081,7831,2731,8221,6171,154Total production 8,9998,0249,0058,1637,2808,169 Beet sugar4,9394,2854,9654,4803,8874,504 Cane sugar4,0603,7404,0403,6833,3933,665 Florida2,0052,1002,1051,8191,9051,910 Louisiana1,9071,5131,8001,7301,3721,633 Texas147127135134115122 Hawaii000000 Total imports3,0703,7313,4562,7853,3843,135 Tariff-rate quota imports 1,5412,1801,3951,3981,9781,266 Other program imports438350350397318318 Non-program imports1,0921,2001,7109901,0891,552 Mexico 1,0001,0501,6609089531,506 High-duty91150508313645Total supply14,076.7513,53813,73312,77012,28112,458Total exports 353535313232Miscellaneous28002600Deliveries for domestic use12,23112,23012,23011,09611,09511,095 Transfer to sugar-containing products for exports under re-export program988080897373 Transfer to polyhydric alcohol, feed, other alcohol272525252323 Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) sale for ethanol, other000000 Deliveries for domestic food and beverage use 12,10612,12512,12510,98211,00011,000Total use12,29412,26512,26511,15311,12711,127Ending stocks 1,7831,2731,4681,6171,1541,332 Private1,7831,2731,4681,6171,1541,332 Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC)000000Stocks-to-use ratio14.5010.3811.9714.5010.3811.97Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook.2018/192018/191,000 Short tons, raw value1,000 Metric tons, raw value mRnRnPzRvNaQ8QaQpNqQnPrRfQqQtOeRmNxO9PoPrMvPtRtPxNoPxP3 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook, SSS-M-381, May 18, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service Sugarbeet Planting for the 2020/21 Crop Remains Behind Average Pace, Slightly Ahead of Previous Year The planting season for most sugarbeet-producing States takes place in April and May. Through May 10, 60 percent of the U.S. sugarbeet crop had been planted according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). This is slightly ahead of last year’s pace, which was 54 percent by this time in the year. The pace has been impacted by a relatively slow pace set by Minnesota and North Dakota, which includes the key production region in the Red River Valley that straddles the two States. Colder spring weather conditions have kept the planting pace behind average in several States. 4 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook, SSS-M-381, May 18, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service Planting sugarbeets in a timely manner is typically correlated with achieving higher yields, as it allows the plant to establish itself before the key growth and development phases that occur during the warmer summer months. Sugarbeet yields during the past 2 years have been lower than the longer term trend, from a combination of difficult planting seasons, challenging harvest conditions, and—in some regions- suboptimal growing conditions. The M...