Approved by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board Feed Outlook Tom Capehart Olga Liefert David Olson Record-High Crop Projected For 2020/21 The 2020/21 U.S. corn crop is forecast to be a record high 16.0 billion bushels. In spite of lower carryin, supplies will still reach a record 18.1 billion bushels. Corn use is also projected at a record level as food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use, feed and residual use and exports all increase from the 2019/20 COVID-19 impacted levels. Total use is projected at 14.8 billion bushels. Ending corn stocks of 3.3 billion bushels are up 1.2 billion bushels from last year and, if realized, would be the highest since 1987/88. The stocks-to-use ratio is the highest since 1992/93, contributing to a $0.40 per bushel reduction in the projected season average price of corn to $3.20. Global 2020/21 coarse grain production is projected at a new record of 1.5 billion tons, with a rebound in the United States and large crops in Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine. Despite record-high corn production prospects, U.S. 2020/21 corn exports face tough competition and are projected at a mere 30 percent of global corn trade, while Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine are expected collectively to have a 58 percent export share. Sorghum exports are boosted for both 2020/21 and 2019/20, based on growing demand from China. Coarse grain use affected by the pandemic in 2019/20 is projected down, but recovering in 2020/21. Coarse grain global ending stocks for 2020/21 are projected higher, with corn stocks taking the lead and U.S. stocks the highest in 33 years. Foreign corn ending stocks are expected to fall, with a decline for China. Excluding China, foreign corn stocks end up slightly higher. Economic Research Service | Situation and Outlook Report Next release is June 15, 2020 FDS-20e | May 14, 2020In this report: Domestic Outlook International Outlook 2 Feed Outlook, FDS-20e, May 14, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000-5.00.05.010.015.020.0United StatesChinaEuropean UnionBrazilArgentinaUkraineIndiaRussiaMexicoCanada1,000 tonsPercent ChangeUnitedStatesChinaEuropeanUnionBrazilArgentinaUkraineIndiaRussiaMexicoCanada% Change16.4-0.31.34.6-0.17.1-1.5-2.710.56.4Production420,511267,375161,233108,40556,70448,47544,75039,40033,60029,535Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Production, Supply, and Distribution database.Coarse grains production changes by ten largest producers (2019/20 to 2020/21)qNtPoMxPvN8ObP6MmOpPsQpPjMnNrMfQrQsPaQnMrPxNoPzRxNoNmR3 Feed Outlook, FDS-20e, May 14, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service Domestic Outlook Corn Planting Advances Quickly as Record Crop is Projected Corn planting is well underway and running ahead of the pace of recent years. As of May 10, 67 percent of the corn crop was in the ground, compared with a 5-year average of 56 percent. Iowa, the largest corn-producing State, has planted 91 percent of its crop, compared with the 5-year average of 66 percent. Last year at this time, only 28 percent of the crop had been planted, due to extremely wet conditions that kept farmers out of the fields. Planted area is projected at 97.0 million acres, based on the March 31 National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Prospective Plantings report. If realized, this would produce a record-high corn crop of 15,995 million bushels at the projected weather-adjusted trend yield of 178.5 bushels per acre. This assumes normal planting progress and, summer growing season weather, and the historical relationship between planted and harvested area. Supplies at this level of production would be 18,118 million bushels, given a projected carryin of 2,098 million bushels and imports of 25 million. The 2019/20 estimated supply is 15,928 million bushels. The previous record was set in 2016/17, at 16,942 million bushels. 020406080100120140160180200010203040506070809010088/89 91/92 94/95 97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07 09/10 12/13 15/16 18/19Bushels/acreMillion acresFigure 1U.S. corn harvested area and yieldSources: USDA, Economic Research Service with data from National Agricultural Statistics Service, QuickStats, and USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board, Crop Projections, 2020.Harvested area (left axis)Yield (right axis)4 Feed Outlook, FDS-20e, May 14, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service 2020/21 Corn Use Projected to Recover Corn disappearance for 2020/21 shows a rebound from the COVID-19 devastated markets. Feed and residual is projected at 6,050 million bushels, 350 million greater than 2019/20 on increased grain consuming animal units, a larger crop, and lower expected prices. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) gains 245 million to 6,600 million bushels as motor gasoline consumption returns to more normal levels spurring ethanol blending. Domestic disappearance is projected to be 12,650 million bushels, 595 million greater than last year. - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,0000.05.010.015.020.025.030...
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