Wheat Outlook Wheat Outlook Jennifer K. Bond, Coordinator COVID-19 Linked Shifts in Consumption Lead to Surge in U.S. Wheat Food Use Wheat flour production during the first 3 months of calendar year 2020 surged more than 4 percent and nearly 9 million bushels above the same period in 2019 (fig.1). Wheat flour purchases were affected by rising retail demand, specifically demand for family flour (used for home baking), pasta, pan breads, and wheat-based snack products. Rising retail demand corresponded with the emerging global COVID-19 pandemic, which led to widespread stay-at-home orders and encouraged consumers to stock up on staples. As some mills and bakeries reportedly operated on extended hours to meet the unseasonably high demand for flour and flour-based products at retail, sales to the food service sector—such as restaurants and institutions, including schools—was notably weaker. 010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00074,00079,00084,00089,00094,000Groceryspending2019/20Food servicespending2019/202019/202018/192017/18Sources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Flour Milling Products report data, USDA, Economic Research Service calculations, and U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.Figure 1U.S. monthly wheat flour production surges as COVID-19 leads consumers to shift spending from food service to grocery stores(1,000 Bushels)(Million $)Next release is June 15, 2020 WHS-20e | May 14, 2020In this report: -Domestic OutlookoFeature: Food Use and COVID-19-International Outlook Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook BoardEconomic Research Service | Situation and Outlook Report Domestic Outlook Domestic Changes at A Glance: •U.S. wheat production for 2020/21 is projected at 1,866 million bushels, down 3 percentfrom 2019.oBased on survey-based data, USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service(NASS) forecasts winter wheat production at 1,255 million bushels, down 4percent from 2019 on lower yields and slightly lower harvested area.•With smaller production and reduced ending stocks, year-to-year, supplies for 2020/21are projected down 121 million bushels from the 2019/20 marketing year.•Lower projected feed and residual use in the new marketing year, down 35 millionbushels, combines with slightly higher seed and food use for a net 3 percent reduction indomestic utilization.•Projected record-large corn supplies and the highest wheat-to-corn price ratio since2014/15 are expected to displace wheat in livestock feed rations.•Food use in 2020/21 is up 2 million bushels to 964 million as the gradual re-opening ofthe economy following COVID-19-related business closures and stay-at-home orders, isforecast to encourage greater consumption of food consumed away-from-home and tocombined with still-strong retail sales of flour and flour-based products for a net increasein total use.•Wheat prices for 2020/21 are projected at $4.60 per bushel, unchanged from the2019/20 season-average farm price forecast.oAn outlook for low corn prices in 2020/21, projected at $3.20 per bushel (versus$3.60 in 2019/20) constrains upward momentum for the wheat price.•For the 2019/20 balance sheet, exports are trimmed 15 million bushels this month to 970million on a slower-than-expected pace and strong price competition from the EuropeanUnion (EU) and Russia.•A surge in retail buying, as consumers stocked up on staples including flour, bread, andpasta, resulted in a record-high wheat food use for the first three months of 2020.oOn a marketing year basis, the trade-adjusted gains in wheat food use indicatedin the NASS Flour Milling Products report help to lift wheat food use in thismarketing year up 9.4 million bushels as compared with the same time in 2019.2 Wheat Outlook, WHS-20e, May 14, 2020 USDA, Economic Research ServicemRnRsQyQvNaQ9R6MoMpPoMoOlOoOsPkPoPtObRmNoQNZpOxOMYqNmOTable 1 - U.S. wheat supply and utilization at a glance 2019/20 Balance sheet item 2019/20 April 2019/20 May 2019/20 Change from previous month 2020/21 May Comments Supply, total May-June Marketing Year (MY) Beginning stocks 1,079.8 1,079.8 0.0 977.9 Production 1,920.1 1,920.1 0.0 1,866.0 2020/21 wheat production reflects latest NASS survey data for winter wheat. Imports 105.0 105.0 0.0 140.0 Reduced U.S supplies and a larger Canadian crop support rising imports in 2020/21. Supply, total 3,104.9 3,104.9 0.0 2,983.9 Demand Food 955.0 962.0 7.0 964.0 Food use for 2019/20 is raised 7 million bushels this month on surging retail demand in the first calendar year quarter; as retail demand tapers off in April and May and into to the new marketing year, rising food service demand is forecast to mostly offset softening retail demand. Food use in 2020/21 is up on the outlook for strong consumption of staples. Seed 60.0 60.0 0.0 61.0 Feed and residual 135.0 135.0 0.0 100.0 Feed and residual use in 2020/21 is lowered on reduced wheat supplies and expectations for expanded corn feeding. Domestic, total 1,150.0 1,157.0 7.0 1,125.0 Exports 985....
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