Approved by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board Oil Crops Outlook Mark Ash Dana Golden Brighter U.S. Export Outlook May Trim 2020/21 Stocks Surplus U.S. soybean production for 2020/21 is projected at 4.125 billion bushels, up 568 million from last year’s crop. The increase is largely based on farmers following through on intentions to plant 83.5 million acres of soybeans, although the projected trend yield of 49.8 bushels per acre is also above last year’s level. U.S. soybean exports in 2020/21 may see a recovery to 2.05 billion bushels compared with a revised 2019/20 forecast of 1.675 billion. Coupled with a minimal increase for the domestic crush, season-ending stocks for 2020/21 may decline to 405 million bushels from 580 million in 2019/20. 3035404550550204060801002010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21Bushels/acreMillion acresSources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Crop Production and World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.Figure 1Bigger U.S. soybean crop is seen in 2020/21 on recoveries for sown acreage and yield Planted acreageYield (right axis)Economic Research Service | Situation and Outlook Report Next release is June 15, 2020 OCS-20e | May 14, 2020 2 Oil Crops Outlook, OCS-20e, May 14, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service Domestic Outlook Soybean Supplies and Exports May Both Rebound in 2020/21 U.S. soybean production for 2020/21 is projected at 4.125 billion bushels, up 568 million from last year’s crop. The increase is largely based on farmers following through on their intentions to plant 83.5 million acres of soybeans for an expected harvested area of 82.8 million acres. It would be a sharp increase from the 76.1 million acres sown in 2019/20. Soybean planting this spring is advancing well in some Midwestern areas, with 38 percent of intended U.S. acreage sown by May 10. In other northern regions, however, cold weather has either stalled the start of planting or could require some re-planting. The projected 2020/21 crop is also based on a projected trend yield of 49.8 bushels per acre and would be above the 2019/20 yield of 47.4 bushels. The bigger crop and large carryover stocks would boost total supplies in 2020/21 by 5 percent to 4.7 billion bushels. U.S. soybean exports in 2020/21 may see a recovery to 2.05 billion bushels compared with a revised 2019/20 forecast of 1.675 billion. Considerable gains are likely for soybean shipments to 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0002003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20Million bushelsSource: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.Figure 2Despite bigger U.S. soybean crop, 2020/21 ending stocks may ease with an export recovery Ending stocksExportsDomestic useProductionqNqMsQzRwOaQbP8OmOpPmOqQlOoOmRlOrQtOaQmNqOwMmNxPNZnQsN3 Oil Crops Outlook, OCS-20e, May 14, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service China next year as they benefit under the terms of a January 2020 trade agreement to purchase more U.S. agricultural products. Yet, the market conditions to initiate any big sales to China by the end of the summer have not developed. Unreserved selling by Brazilian farmers could maintain a price premium for U.S. soybean exports for much of the summer. By the first half of 2020/21, however, the rapid depletion of Brazilian old-crop stocks will expedite a switchover in China’s suppliers. In 2020/21, China may account for most of the increase in global imports, so U.S. exports could contribute the largest gain to global exports. Still, foreign competition in the global export market for soybeans will remain formidable next year. Sharp depreciation of South American exchange rates relative to the U.S. dollar have made the soybean shipments of these competitors comparatively cheap. While U.S. soybean shipments to China may thrive in 2020/21, they may struggle in other import markets against low-cost Brazilian exports. The U.S. soybean crush in March 2020 totaled 192 million bushels—registering its highest monthly rate ever. Despite falling prices for the meal and oil byproducts, crush margins are still attractive because the purchase cost for soybeans has plummeted, as well. Even so, the lucrative 2019/20 market for domestic processors may revert to a more challenging climate next season. The 2020/21 soybean crush may edge 5 million bushels higher to 2.13 billion as the expected use of soybean meal registers a minimal gain. A modest increase for domestic soybean meal consumption could be largely offset by a loss of export demand. Despite expectations for a larger U.S. soybean crop, a revived export market should tighten season-ending stocks for 2020/21 to 405 million bushels. If realized, it would be a steep reduction compared with the revised 2019/20 forecast carryout of 580 million bushels and the 2018/19 inventory of 909 million. Even so, considerable pressure will remain on the level ...
发表评论取消回复