ISSN: 1554-9089 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Office of the Chief Economist Agricultural Marketing Service Farm Service Agency Economic Research Service Foreign Agricultural Service WASDE - 599 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board April 9, 2020 WHEAT: The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat is for lower exports, reduced domestic use, and increased ending stocks. The NASS Grain Stocks report, issued March 31, implied less feed and residual disappearance for both the second and third quarters than previously estimated. Total 2019/20 feed and residual use is trimmed 15 million bushels to 135 million. Wheat exports are also cut 15 million bushels to 985 million on a slowing pace and prices that have become uncompetitive in many international import markets. By class, Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter are reduced 10 million and 5 million bushels, respectively. The changes result in a 30 million bushel increase in estimated all wheat ending stocks to 970 million. Despite the larger ending stocks, the projected season-average farm price is raised $0.05 per bushel to $4.60 on updated NASS data as well as surging nearby cash and futures prices, partially resulting from the global COVID-19 pandemic. The 2019/20 global outlook is for slightly higher supplies, but reduced trade and utilization. Global production is lowered fractionally with several small mostly offsetting changes. Global exports are lowered 0.9 million tons, led by a 1.5-million-ton reduction for Russia, which was directly offset by an equivalent increase for the EU. The Russia change is based primarily on newly imposed government export restrictions. The EU is raised on less competition from Russia as well as expectations of a continued strong pace of exports. Several smaller export reductions are made; notably a 0.4-million-ton reduction for the United States and a 0.3-million-ton reduction for Pakistan. Global imports are reduced 0.3 million tons each for Brazil, Japan, and Uzbekistan; a 0.3-million-ton increase for Morocco is partially offsetting. Aggregate world consumption is lowered 5.1 million tons following updates to several countries. The largest reductions are 2.0 million tons for China, 1.9 million for India, and 1.0 million for the EU. With supplies higher and use down, projected 2019/20 global ending stocks are raised 5.6 million tons to a record high 292.8 million. COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced imports, greater feed and residual use, lower food, seed, and industrial use, and larger stocks. Feed and residual use is raised 150 million bushels to 5.675 billion. This is based on corn stocks reported as of March 1 which indicated disappearance during the December-February quarter rose about 4 percent relative to a year ago. Lower forecast corn used for ethanol also supports larger feed and residual use. Corn used to produce ethanol is lowered 375 million bushels to 5.050 billion based on the latest indications from Energy Information Administration data indicating an unprecedented decline in ethanol production and motor gasoline consumption as a result of COVID-19. Partly offsetting is a forecast increase in the amount of corn used for alcohol for beverages and WASDE-599-2 manufacturing use. With supply down fractionally and use declining, ending stocks are raised 200 million bushels to 2.092 billion. The season-average marketing weighted corn price received by producers is lowered 20 cents to $3.60 per bushel. The global coarse grain production forecast for 2019/20 is up 1.0 million tons to 1,403.8 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, lower trade, fractionally higher use, and larger stocks relative to last month. Corn production is raised for the EU and Belarus, with partly offsetting reductions for Indonesia and Laos. Major global trade changes for 2019/20 include higher projected corn exports for the EU, with a partially offsetting reduction for Russia. Corn imports are raised for South Korea, Turkey, Algeria, and Indonesia, with lower projections for Vietnam, Taiwan, Cuba, and Mexico. Foreign corn ending stocks are raised, mostly reflecting increases for Thailand, Taiwan, India, and Turkey that more than offset declines for Argentina and Mexico. Global corn ending stocks, at 303.2 million tons, are up 5.8 million from last month. RICE: The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. rice this month is for lower supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and reduced ending stocks. Supplies are lowered by 0.5 million cwt to 261.5 million on decreased imports. Long-grain imports are lowered on an expected reduced volume in the near-term due to sharply curtailed restaurant usage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Projected 2019/20 all rice ending stocks are subsequently reduced by 0.5 million cwt to 29.5 million, which is down 34 percent from last year. The projected all rice stocks-to-use ratio of 12.7 percent would be the lowest since 2007/08. Reflecting...
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