ISSN: 1554-9089 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Office of the Chief Economist Agricultural Marketing Service Farm Service Agency Economic Research Service Foreign Agricultural Service WASDE - 601 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board June 11, 2020 WHEAT: U.S. 2020/21 wheat supplies are up on a larger crop and a slight increase in beginning stocks. The change in beginning stocks reflects a 5-million-bushel reduction in 2019/20 exports. Winter wheat production is forecast up 11 million bushels to 1,266 million with increases in Hard Red Winter and White Winter more than offsetting small decrease for Soft Red Winter. Total 2020/21 wheat production is now forecast at 1,877 million bushels, and total supplies are raised 16 million to 3,000 million. Domestic use and exports for the new marketing year are unchanged this month, and ending stocks are raised 16 million bushels to 925 million, which is a 6-year low. World 2020/21 wheat supplies are raised 5.7 million tons on a 4.9-million-ton production increase and higher beginning stocks. India production is raised 4.2 million tons, and Australia is up 2.0 million, both on updated government statistics. India’s crop is projected to be record-large, and Australia’s crop is expected to rebound on improved conditions following two consecutive years of drought. Turkey and China are both increased by 1.0 million tons. Partly offsetting these changes are crop reductions of 2.0 million tons for the EU and 1.5 million for Ukraine, both reflecting dry conditions during key parts of the growing season. Projected 2020/21 global exports are raised 0.9 million tons to 188.9 million, led by a 2.0-million-ton increase for Australia on larger supplies, and a 1.0-million increase for Russia on reduced export competition from Ukraine. Exports are lowered 1.5 million tons for Ukraine and 0.5 million for the EU, both on smaller crops. With increased supplies, and global use lowered fractionally, world ending stocks are raised 6.0 million tons to a record-high 316.1 million, with China and India accounting for 51 percent and 10 percent of the total, respectively. COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is little changed from last month, with fractional increases to beginning and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised, as a 45-million-bushel reduction in estimated production for 2019/20 is largely offset by a 50-million-bushel reduction in projected corn used for ethanol. Corn used for ethanol is lowered reflecting a slower-than-expected rebound in ethanol production as indicated by Energy Information Administration data during the month of May and into early June. For 2020/21, with supply up slightly and no changes to projected use, ending stocks are 5 million bushels higher at 3.3 billion bushels. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $3.20 per bushel. The global coarse grain production forecast for 2020/21 is raised 3.2 million tons to 1,484.6 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, increased use, and lower stocks relative to last month. Brazil corn production is raised based on higher expected area. Barley production is raised for the EU, based mostly on a forecast increase for the United Kingdom that is partly offset by a reduction for France. Barley production is raised for Australia, but lowered for Ukraine, India, and Russia. For 2019/20, Brazil corn WASDE-601-2 production is unchanged, as higher indicated area is offset by a reduction in yield. Yield prospects for much of the Center-West are generally favorable in contrast to the South where conditions have been poor. Major global trade changes for 2020/21 include a larger corn export forecast for Zambia, with increases in corn imports for Thailand and Honduras. Barley exports are lowered for Australia, based on a reduction in projected imports for China. For 2019/20, corn exports are raised for Argentina but lowered for Brazil for the local marketing year beginning March 2020 based on observed data through early June. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2020/21 are lowered from last month, mostly reflecting reductions for China, Argentina, South Africa, and Paraguay that more than offset increases for Brazil and India. RICE: The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. rice this month is for larger supplies, greater domestic use, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks. Most of the 2020/21 revisions are the result of 2019/20 supply and use changes. The 2020/21 all rice beginning stocks are increased 1.5 million cwt to 32.0 million, a result of higher 2019/20 imports, now forecast at a near-record 33.5 million, raising 2019/20 ending stocks. All of the increase in 2019/20 imports is for long-grain, based on a record import pace to date, primarily aromatics from Thailand. Long-term growth in imports is expected to continue in 2020/21 as projected imports are raised 1.0 million cwt to a record-high 33.6 million. The combination of increased beginning stocks a...
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