ISSN: 1554-9089 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Office of the Chief Economist Agricultural Marketing Service Farm Service Agency Economic Research Service Foreign Agricultural Service WASDE - 602 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board July 10, 2020 WHEAT: The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased stocks. Supplies are raised as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower production. Beginning stocks are increased on the NASS Grain Stocks report, issued June 30, which indicated higher 2019/20 ending stocks than previously estimated. This also resulted in lowering 2019/20 feed and residual use by 61 million bushels to 74 million. Wheat production for 2020/21 is reduced 53 million bushels to 1,824 million. Winter wheat production is lowered 48 million bushels to 1,218 million with reductions in Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter. The initial 2020/21 survey-based production forecasts for other spring and Durum were issued this month by NASS. Other spring wheat is less than last year at 550 million bushels on lower forecast yields while Durum is higher at 56 million on increased harvested area. Domestic use is 10 million bushels lower this month, all on reduced feed and residual use as 2020/21 U.S. corn supplies are still projected significantly larger than last year. Projected 2020/21 exports are unchanged at 950 million bushels but there were several offsetting by-class changes this month. Ending stocks for 2020/21 are projected 17 million bushels higher than last month at 942 million. The projected season-average farm price (SAFP) is unchanged at $4.60 per bushel, compared to the revised 2019/20 SAFP of $4.58. The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for smaller supplies, reduced consumption, lower exports, and decreased stocks. Supplies are reduced 2.9 million tons to 1,066 million as larger beginning stocks are more than offset by reduced production, primarily in the EU, United States, Morocco, and Russia. EU production is lowered 1.5 million tons to 139.5 million, mainly on reductions for France and Spain. If realized, this would be the smallest EU wheat production since 2012/13. Morocco is lowered 800,000 tons to 2.7 million, the smallest output since 2007/08, primarily on updated government estimates. Russia is reduced 500,000 tons to 76.5 million as lower winter wheat production is partially offset by increased spring wheat output. Projected 2020/21 global trade is reduced 0.8 million tons to 188.0 million as lower EU exports are only partially offset by higher Australian exports. World consumption is lowered 1.6 million tons to 751.6 million, primarily on reduced feed and residual use in the EU, the United States, and Morocco. Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are lowered 1.3 million tons to 314.8 million but remain record-large with China and India accounting for 51 and 10 percent of the total, respectively. COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is for sharply lower supplies, reduced feed and residual use, increased food, seed, and industrial use, and lower ending stocks. Corn beginning stocks are raised 145 million bushels, based on lower use forecasts for 2019/20. Feed and residual use for 2019/20 is lower based on indicated disappearance during the first three quarters of the marketing year as reported in the June 30 Grain Stocks. Food, seed, and industrial use is lowered 45 million bushels. Corn used for ethanol is lowered 50 million bushels based on reported use to date and weekly ethanol production data reported by the Energy Information Administration during the month of June and into early July. Projected corn used for glucose and dextrose and starch are both raised, while that used for high fructose corn syrup is lowered. For 2020/21, corn production is forecast 995 million bushels lower based on reduced planted and harvested areas from the June 30 Acreage report. The national average corn yield is unchanged at 178.5 bushels per acre. During June, harvested-area weighted precipitation for the major corn WASDE-602-2 producing states as reported by the National Centers for Environmental Information was below normal, but did not represent an extreme deviation from the 1988 to 2019 average. Silking as reported in the Crop Progress report is slower than the recent historical average and for much of the crop the critical pollination period will be during middle and late July. Projected feed and residual use is lowered 200 million bushels, reflecting a smaller crop and higher expected prices. Food, seed, and industrial use is raised 25 million bushels, based on projected increases in the amount of corn used for beverage and manufacturing, starch, and glucose and dextrose. Small revisions are made to historical trade and utilization estimates based on the 13th month trade data revisions from the Census Bureau. With supply declining more than use, stocks are lowered 675 million b...
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