北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系。证券研究报告 | July 18, 2019 | 3:58AM HKT戴晔, CFA (分析师)执业证书编号:S1420517070001+86(21)2401-8944 brian.dai@ghsl.cn 北京高华证券有限责任公司中国 农业 从长计议国人饮食之变(摘要)在自然资源已被过渡挖掘，以及中国的农业生产成本上升到其他主要农业国家的两倍的情况下，中国需要通过更多技术创新带来的产量增长，和加大进口来平衡未来的食品供需。我们认为中国农业领域投资前景颇具吸引力：近期非洲猪瘟、气候因素以及去库存结束有望带动价格周期上行，从长期来看价格呈现结构性上升趋势。更值得着重关注的是，在中国农业转型之际，供应整合、饮食结构升级、高效新技术/新产品加大渗透等因素将在行业内创造相对更为强劲的增长机会。*全文翻译随后提供本报告仅供 kol.yu@ghsl.cn 使用本报告仅供 kol_yu_ghsl_cn 使用21715771/36139/20190724 15:37Story in charts5 Investment summary6 Pricing forecasts and key supply/demand balance11 Summary of key stocks12 China’s agriculture sector: A macro view, sustained growth ahead13 ASF and global protein: tighter for longer24 LT dietary pattern in transition: Not more, but better34 Chinese supply: Transformation needed43 Global supply responses: Feeding China’s rising imports57 Pricing and margin outlook: Strong margin outlook for animal protein, best risk reward in corn76 China sub-sector 1: Live hog breeding and cultivation88 China sub-sector 2: Feed103 China sub-sector 3: Animal health108 China sub-sector 4: Seeds114 Stock picks: China and global 119 Disclosure Appendix140 18 July 2019 2Goldman SachsChina AgricultureTable of Contents List of contributing authorsTrina Chen | +852 2978-2678 | trina.chen@gs.com | Goldman Sachs Asia LLC Brian Dai, CFA | +86 21 2401-8944 | brian.dai@ghsl.cn | Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company LimitedAdam Samuelson | +1 212 902-6764 | adam.samuelson@gs.com | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLCMichael Peet | +61 2 9321-8528 | michael.peet@gs.com | Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd Luca Cipiccia | +1 212 357-4335 | luca.cipiccia@gs.com | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLCLincoln Kong, CFA | +852 2978-6603 | lincoln.kong@gs.com | Goldman Sachs Asia LLCTheodora Lee Joseph, CFA | +44 20 7051-8362 | theodoralee.joseph@gs.com | Goldman Sachs InternationalSophie Carran | +61 2 9321-8582 | sophie.carran@gs.com | Goldman Sachs Australia Pty LtdJordan Shimabuku | +1 801 741-5447 | jordan.shimabuku@gs.com | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLCYuqing Li | +852 2978-7347 | yuqing.li@gs.com | Goldman Sachs Asia LLCAnnabel Hazlitt | +44 20 7051-7375 | annabel.hazlitt@gs.com | Goldman Sachs International本报告仅供 kol.yu@ghsl.cn 使用本报告仅供 kol_yu_ghsl_cn 使用21715771/36139/20190724 15:373Goldman SachsChina Agriculture85%of China beef consumption growth from 2018 to long term, 40% of which would need to come from imports+4%growth in non-pork meat Chinese demand from China in 1Q19, while pork apparent demand declined by 5%, on the back of African Swine Fever (ASF)3.5xChina’s use of nitrogen-based fertilizer per hectare of land vs. global average0-2.5%negative climate impact on crop yield over a decade, reported by IPCC150xfaster seeding operations using drone-based seeding versus traditional manual seeding in China 34-60%gaps between global supply and China demand may emerge, without a yield revolution, if Chinese consumption upgrades are reached by 2030, while global land expansion is likely to remain disciplined100%higher production costs for Chinese corn and soybean vs. US and Brazil60-100%price hikes in global soybean and corn prices in 2007-08 and 2011-12, when supply deficit was 2-8% due to droughtDEMAND GROWTH IN CHINA11%CAGR for milk & milk product imports in the last few years24%higher daily consumption in grain equivalent terms, when China upgrades its animal protein consumption to the same level as Japan and KoreaSUPPLY CONSTRAINTS AND OPPORTUNITIES45%percentage of China pork output could decline from normal level, by end of 2020, assuming ASF comes under control in 2H191.8xhigher yield in soybean in China vs. US30%more potential yield gain can be achieved in theory for Longping’s hybrid riceGLOBAL SUPPLY, TRADE, AND PRICES7-42%of the agriculture supply are traded globally today, and could grow by 12-51% due to increasing imports from China in the coming years31%of the Amazon maybe converted to agriculture use by 2050, from current 17%, if land expansion in Brazil grows at over 1% a year40%of production in China is labour, which grew 4x in the past decade, vs. 3-5% labour costs in the US and BrazilSource: FAO, USDA, NBS, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research本报告仅供 kol.yu@ghsl.cn 使用本报告仅供 kol_yu_ghsl_cn 使用21715771/36139/20190724 15:37 4Goldman SachsChina Agriculture10 THINGS THAT MAY SURPRISE YOU1Chinese consumers on average eat half a pig per year (37kgs), 8 chickens each year, and have 1 steak (200g/steak or equivalent beef) and 1 carton of milk every two weeks2American consumers on average eat 0.4 pig per year (30kgs), 30 chickens each year, and have 1 steak (200g/steak or equivalent beef) and 1.5 cartons of milk every two days3The average daily food consumption of Chinese consumers requires 680g of grains to produce vs. 1700g for average American consumers4While 1kg of beef has the same calorific value as 0.8kg of corn, it takes 8-10kg of feed (corn and soybean meal) to...
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