*For list of authors, see page 2 Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 85.SIGNATURE #foodrevolution #transatlanticGlobal Catering Catering in a delivery world Is food delivery a threat to caterers as retail delivery has been to the high street? Or is this an exciting new opportunity for both sectors? In this cross-sector report we tackle these big questions in conjunction with our new survey. The impact of delivery on catering has been marginal so far, but this is just the beginning. European LeisureEuropean Media Vicki SternAndrew Ross, CFA +44 (0)20 3134 6733+44 (0)20 7773 3023 vicki.stern@barclays.com andrew.ross2@barclays.com Barclays, UKBarclays, UKEquity Research 6 September 2019Barclays | Global Catering 6 September 2019 2 Summary of our Ratings, Price Targets and Earnings Changes in this Report (all changes are shown in bold) Company Rating Price Price Target EPS FY1 (E) EPS FY2 (E) Old New 03-Sep-19 Old New %Chg Old New %Chg Old New %Chg European Leisure Neg Neg Compass Group PLC (CPG LN / CPG.L) EW EW 2138 1970 2000 2 84.2 84.4 0 90.8 92.3 2 Elior Group (ELIOR FP / ELIOR.PA) EW EW 11.77 11.00 11.30 3 0.25 0.52 108 0.55 0.58 5 Source: Barclays Research. Share prices and target prices are shown in the primary listing currency and EPS estimates are shown in the reporting currency. FY1(E): Current fiscal year estimates by Barclays Research. FY2(E): Next fiscal year estimates by Barclays Research. Stock Rating: OW: Overweight; EW: Equal Weight; UW: Underweight; RS: Rating Suspended Industry View: Pos: Positive; Neu: Neutral; Neg: Negative CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS European Leisure Vicki Stern +44 (0)20 3134 6733 vicki.stern@barclays.com Barclays, UK European Leisure Chandni Patel +44 (0) 207 773 7594 chandni.patel@barclays.com Barclays, UK European Leisure James Rowland Clark +44 (0)20 7773 0872 james.rowlandclark@barclays.com Barclays, UK European Leisure Pravin Gondhale +91 (0)22 6175 2078 pravin.gondhale@barclays.com Barclays, UK European Media Andrew Ross, CFA +44 (0)20 7773 3023 andrew.ross2@barclays.com Barclays, UK U.S. Internet Deepak Mathivanan +1 415 274 5351 deepak.mathivanan@barclays.com BCI, US U.S. Business & Professional Services Manav Patnaik +1 212 526 2983 manav.patnaik@barclays.com BCI, US U.S. Business & Professional Services Gregory Bardi, CFA +1 212 526 7188 gregory.bardi@barclays.com BCI, US European Business Services Paul Sullivan +44 (0)20 3134 3307 paul.sullivan@barclays.com Barclays, UK Sustainable & Thematic Investing Hiral Patel +44 (0)20 3134 1618 hiral.patel@barclays.com Barclays, UK Sustainable & Thematic Investing Emily Morrison +44 (0)20 7773 9080 emily.morrison@barclays.com Barclays, UK Barclays | Global Catering 6 September 2019 3 CONTENTS CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS ............................................................................. 2 OUR STORY IN PICTURES ................................................................................ 5 OUR STORY IN QUOTES .................................................................................. 9 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................. 11 IMPACT ON CATERING SECTOR FROM WORKPLACE DELIVERY HAS BEEN LIMITED SO FAR… ..................................................................... 19 …BUT THINGS ARE EVOLVING QUICKLY WITH A NEW B2B LUNCH FOCUS, ‘DARK KITCHENS’, SUBSCRIPTION MODELS, LOYALTY SCHEMES, LOWER DELIVERY FEES & BROADER GEOGRAPHIC REACH ................................................................................................................ 24 WILL CONSUMERS SHIFT? ............................................................................ 34 THREATS & OPPORTUNITIES ....................................................................... 37 CATERERS: REACTIONS, WINNERS & LOSERS ......................................... 39 SIZING THE RISK .............................................................................................. 48 WHAT COULD THE FUTURE LOOK LIKE? .................................................. 51 KEY QUESTIONS FOR CATERERS ................................................................ 52 ONLINE FOOD DELIVERY – B2B PART OF AN ATTRACTIVE GROWTH OUTLOOK ...................................................................................... 53 APPENDIX 1: BARCLAYS SURVEY RESULTS ............................................. 66 APPENDIX 2: VALUATIONS ..................
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