食品饮料行业2019年中报总结：白酒啤酒亮眼，食品龙头穿越周期-20190908-中信证券-18页 - 副本.pdf

20192019.9.8 S1010514080007 2019H1&VAT2019H1/Q22019&&2019H12019H1/19.9%/16.0%/19.42%/25.81%&2019H1/40%/15%2019H15.88/35%+EPSPE 2018 2019E 2020E 2018 2019E 2020E 1144.0 28.02 35.09 40.95 41 33 28 138.90 3.47 4.49 5.55 40 31 25 95.50 2.38 3.21 4.00 40 29 24 43.75 0.85 1.00 1.27 47 40 31 48.76 1.17 1.40 1.75 42 35 28 Wind201995EPSEPS 20192019.9.8 ......................................................................... 1 ............................................................................ 1 ......................................................................... 3 ................................. 4 ........................................................................................... 5 ......................................................................... 6......................................................................... 7 ............................................................................ 7&VAT ................................................ 8 ..................................................... 10 ....................................................................... 12 ......................................................................................................................... 14 ......................................................................................................................... 14 20192019.9.8 1CSII ........................................................................... 12CSII ....................................................................... 13CSII .................................................................................................... 142019H1 ....................................................................... 15CSII ............................................................................................. 262019H1 .............................................................................. 27CSII ............................................................................................. 282019H1 .............................................................................. 29CSII .................................................................................................... 3102019H1 ................................................................................... 311 ......................................................... 312 ..................................................... 313 .................................................................................. 614 ........................................................................... 615 ............................................................................... 616 ....................................................................... 61720182019.01-06 ......................................................... 718/ ................................................................... 719.......................................................................................... 820.......................................................................................... 821.......................................................................................... 922.......................................................................................... 923 .......................................................................................................... 1024+ ............................................................ 1025 ......................................................................... 1026 .............................................................. 1027 ............................................................................. 1128 .................................................................. 11292018Q1-2019Q2 ............................................................ 12302018Q1-2019Q2 ........................................................ 12312018Q1-2019Q2 ................................................. 1332 ................................................................................ 13 12019H1/ .................................................................. 42///............................................................ 53/ ............................................................................ 54 ............................................................................................ 8 20192019.9.8 1 2019H1 1272 19.5%443 25.6%20162018Q3/2017Q32019H1/20%/26%2019H17.3%18.3%/ 1CSII 2CSII 3CSII 42019H1Pcts 2019H176.3%0.7Pct+5.1Pcts+4.8Pcts0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0100200300400500600700800CS() YOY0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%050100150200250300CS() YOY69.1% 69.8% 69.8% 71.3% 71.6%74.2% 75.6% 77.2% 76.3% 64%66%68%70%72%74%76%78%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6% 20192019.9.8 2 +1.0Pct+0.9Pct 2019H111.3%0.2Pct18112019H15.7%0.5Pct 5CSII 62019H1pcts 7CSII 82019H1pcts 2019H136.3%1.6Pcts20173.0/1.3/3.0 Pcts3.0Pcts 12.3% 13.0% 11.7% 13.3% 12.2%11.9% 11.5% 10.8% 11.3% 8%9%10%11%12%13%14%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8...