ResearchDeutsche BankThe House View23 July 2019quinn.brody@db.comhimanshu.porwal@db.comjim.reid@db.comDISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 066/04/2019Global moneta...
宏观经济分析报告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 18 宏观研究 证券研究报告 宏观月报 证券分析师 周喜 022-28451972 相关研究报告 7 月份以来外围风险日渐强化，全球经济扩张动能的衰弱令降息浪潮此起彼伏。美联储降息落地，但在经济现状尚可的情况下，对未来政策路径的表述并未呈现出鸽派倾向，这导致导致美元走高、黄金走弱以及国债收益...
| FOCUS 01/08/2019 1 While we have been bullish on EM assets since Q3 2018, the pace of the current rally in credit and local currency rates has been too quick and the size too large. In this environm...
| TRADE IDEA 31/07/2019 1 TRADE IDEA | EM 31 July 2019 EM Strategy: Portfolio changes after the Fed’s decision KEY MESSAGES Strategy A: Increase position in DI Jan-25 to USD25,000 DV01 from USD15,000 ...
Chile Hungary Czech Israel South Korea Mexico Poland Turkey Argentina Brazil China Colombia India Indonesia Romania Russia Saudi Arabia South Africa Singapore Malaysia Vietnam Thailand 0%10%20%30%0%20...
1 31/07/19 Hakan Aklar, Chief Economist | Turk Ekonomi Bank A.S.Turkey – Inflation report supports rate cutsKEY MESSAGES The Turkish central bank lowered its year-end 2019 CPI inflation forecast to 13...
-40-2002040608010020142015201620172018H1 2019MARKET VIEW The SAR curve is likely to bear-flatten in the immediate aftermath of the FOMC meeting, in line with the US curve, in our view. Both the SAR an...
31/07/19 | FLASHGustavo Arruda, Senior Economist | BNP Paribas do Brasil SA Brazil: Monetary policy decision – cut, cut, cutKEY MESSAGES Brazil’s central bank (BCB) on Wednesday cut the Selic rate to ...
| FOCUS 29/07/2019 1 FOCUS| EM 29 July 2019 Brazil: Cost of public debt (fiscal) declines further KEY MESSAGES Non-residents’ share of Brazilian local public debt decreased by 0.8% in June and now sta...
Please refer to important information at the end of this report ARGENTINA: ELECTION TRACKER SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECIES DEEP DIVE | EMERGING MARKETS RESEARCH August 2019 Felipe Klein, Economist BNP Par...
MACRO QUANT STRATEGY | G10 FX Please refer to important information at the end of the report FLASH | GLOBAL 5 August 2019 Michael Sneyd, CFAAlex Jekov, Head of Macro Quantitative & Derivatives Strateg...
Fig. 2: 30y Bund valuation back to June 2016 mispricing levels Fig. 1: Bund yield is now consistent with major new APP Sources: BNP Paribas Sources: BNP Paribas. | TRADE IDEAS 05/08/2019 1 TRADE IDEA ...
ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF AGEING POPULATIONS ON YIELDS LIFE-CYCLE MODELLING OF THE NEUTRAL RATE OF INTEREST Please refer to important information at the end of this report MACRO QUANT & DERIVATIVES | G1...
Market View We see little reason for the market to extend rate-cut expectations after the August BoE meeting (the market is currently pricing in around 14bp of cuts by the year-end). At the margin, th...
| FOCUS25/07/20191We recently closed our EUR inflation flattener in light of the flattening of the curve sinceMarch and our view that the ECB will increasingly stress symmetry in its inflation aim.As ...
| FOCUS 01/08/2019 1 FOCUS | EUROZONE 1 August 2019 Pre ECB QE 2.0 − revisiting German ASW KEY MESSAGES Rising expectations of QE have led peripheral valuations to reprice. This has had a tightening i...
MARKET ECONOMICS | G10FX | G10 INTEREST RATES KEY MESSAGES The FOMC cut rates 25bp and announced an early end to balance sheet normalization at its July meeting, in line with our expectations. The Com...
Economic Research September 2, 2019 Global Data Watch: Asia US-China trade tensions ratchet up again In the past couple of weeks, China raised its tariffs on US imports to 10% from 5% on US$75bn of go...
Economic ResearchSeptember 6, 2019Global Data Watch Global slowdown broadening from goods to services and capex to labor ECB to deliver significant easing next week, but hawks are squawking; we now ...
Economic ResearchAugust 30, 2019Global Data Watch Central banks need to engage government to address their constraints US growth holds up but global drag is washing onto its shores 2020 fiscal easi...
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