BP世界能源展望2018中文版.pdf

BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 BP 2018 bp.com.cn/energyoutlook2018 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 3 2040 BP 2040 BPBP BP 2018 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 2018BP BP 40BP 2040 4 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 BP 25 BP BP ( Bob Dudley ) 5 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 • •204025 •25 • •70% • 6 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 • •40%2040 • • • • • 7 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 • • • • • • • 18 20 24 28 30 32 42 46 • • • • • 17 56 58 60 62 64 23 51 11 8 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 106 • 110 112 114 • •2040 • • • • • • 119 103 9 109 70 76 80 84 92 94 98 100 67 120 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 11 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 02468101214161820* 12 * 122 051015202530354019701980199020002010202020302040 2040 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 • • •42-4598-99 84-87106-107 13 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 05101520 14 * 05101520 05101520 * BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 • •204025 •32-41 •52-65 •40%204068-101 15 概览 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 17 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 GDP25 GDP Conventional LNG Russian pipeline 18 % 年均 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10% 1990-2016 2016-2040 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 • •GDP3.25% 25 •20401792 •GDP2525 •80% •GDP10% 19 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 -3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%1970-19801980-19901990-20002000-20102010-20202020-20302030-2040 GDP % GDP 20 0.00.51.01.52.01990-152015-40Thousands BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 • •1.3%202% •GDPGDP35% •204020 •660-61 21 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 • • • • • • 23 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 Conventional LNG Russian pipeline 24 † 051015201970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 * 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%1990-20162016-2040† * % BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 • •29%20% • •28-29 •30-31 •32-33 25 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 -0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%1985-20002000-152015-302030-40 % * 0123456199020002010202020302040 * 26 * BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail • •15 •70% •2040 •2040 27 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2010-20152015-20202020-20252025-20302030-20352035-2040 , % 0%1%1%2%2%3%3%4%4%5%5%1970-19801980-19901990-20002000-20102010-20202020-20302030-2040 * % 28 * BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail • •1.9%1.0%204020% • • •10% 29 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.51970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 ... 1.52.02.53.03.52016 20402016-2040 66% 14% 13% 7% 30 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 ... • •90% • • • 31 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 32 01234520162040* ** 01234520162040 * ** BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 ... • •204025%2580% • •GDP 33 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 -100-500501001502002503003502000-20052005-20102010-20152015-20202020-20252025-20302030-20352035-2040 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.520002010202020302040* 34 * BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 • •204085%94%20405% •42-45 • • 35 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 024681020002010202020302040 ... Conventional LNG Russian pipeline 36 * ** NEDC (New European Drive Cycle) /** 0.00.51.01.52.02.520002010202020302040 * BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 ... •2040 •2040203112113 •PHEVBEV2040ICE •2-3%152040200070%20401003520007 37 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 01020304050201620202025203020352040 38 0%10%20%30%40%201620202025203020352040- - - 23 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 ... • •12 •204030%15%20202030 • •204015% 39 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 2016-2040 / 40 18.7 22.6 18.2 2.5 2.0 18.6 0510152025303540452016 2040 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 ... • • •36-37 • • 41 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 0%20%40%60%80%100%2016202020302040Evolving transitionICE ban 42 0%20%40%60%80%100%201620202025203020352040 - BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 2040 • •2040203020352040 •203020%204015%30% 43 - BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 048121620242016渐进转型 内燃机汽车禁令 44 / 2016 2040 - 0510152025303540199020002010202020302040 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 ... • • •/20402016 • 7% 45 - BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 % GDP 0%20%40%60%80%100%19701980199020002010202020302040 46 0%1%2%3%4%5%1990-20162016-2040GDP BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail • •70% • •7%204094-95 •13%2540%204030% •2520% 47 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 ... 2016-2040 -3-2-10123456 1000 20162040 0%20%40%60%80%100%20162040201620402016204020162040 48 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail • •2030 •2040 • •2040 49 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 • • • • • • 51 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 051015201970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 52 -0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 % BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail • • •112-113 • 53 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 0123452016204020162040201620402016204020162040 ... -400-2000200400600800 2016-2040† † 54 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail • • • • • • 55 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 : -2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%1975-1995 1995-2015 2015-20302030-40 024681012199020002010202020302040 % 56 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail •20 •1.5%20 •20 •204080% • 2025 57 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 0%15%30%45%60%1990200020102020203020400%2%4%6%8%GDP * ... GDP % 1990-2016 2016-2040 58 * BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail • •25 •45%70% • • 59 BP 2018 © BP p.l.c. 2018 051...