光伏玻璃行业：双寡头竞争格局已定，看好2019年量价齐升-20190302-兴业证券-40页.pdf

请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 海外研 究 行业深度研究报告 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 光伏玻璃 ＃investSuggestion＃ 推荐 ( ＃investSuggestionChange＃ 首次 ） 重点公司 重点公司 评级 信义光能 买入 福莱特玻璃 买入 ＃relatedReport＃ 相关报告 光伏：能源局座谈会召开，光伏新政即将出台 20190219 油气景气依旧，环保新秀登场，新 能 源 有 选 择 性 关 注20181126_兴证海外能源公用事业工业 2019 年度策略报告 海外能源、公用事业、工业研究 ＃emailAuthor＃ 分析师： 余小丽 兴业证券经济与金融研究院 yuxiaoli@xyzq.com.cn SFC：AXK331 SAC：S0190518020003 联系人： 车昀佶 cheyunji@xyzq.com.cn ＃assAuthor＃ 投资要点 ＃summary＃  2019 年国内光伏装机需求不明，但大幅下滑可能性小，海外需求重回旺盛。我们认为，由于目前补贴政策仍未下发，目前除了去年末未及时并网的项目和政策较为支持的户用光伏项目仍可以保持一定规模的装机外，其他项目暂时无法提前开展。因此，我们认为 2019 年国内光伏装机规模较难超过 2018 年，但考虑到 30 亿补贴至少对应 25GW 的装机，加上历史遗留的指标项目（3-5GW）、扶贫项目（1-2GW）和平价项目（>5GW），大幅下滑可能性也很小。2018 年海外需求重回旺盛，新增装机 61GW，同比增长 32.6%。同时，太阳能新市场不断崛起，我们预计 2019 年将有 16 个新增装机量超过 1GW 的市场，光伏需求不再依赖于少数几个大型市场。  我们引用了彭博新能源对 2019-2021 年全球光伏装机的预测，保守情况下全球装机分别为 117GW、127GW 和 130GW，中性情况下为 125GW、137GW 和 141GW，而乐观情况下在 133GW、146GW 和 152GW。  国内光伏玻璃企业通过十年的发展基本对海外企业进行了替代。从 2006年开始，国内光伏玻璃行业通过十年的时间，从依赖进口发展到替代进口，2013 年后，国内光伏玻璃产能稳居世界 70%以上。产能集中度提升。按国内光伏玻璃在产产能计算，2014 年左右前五大光伏玻璃生产商占全球光伏玻璃总产能的 63%左右，这一比例在 2018 年末已经提升到 75%以上。  我们认为光伏玻璃行业发展的整体趋势是：龙头企业持续扩大市场份额。 （1）行业双寡头格局成型。我们预计信义光能和福莱特玻璃在 2020 年末光伏玻璃行业的市占率将达到 60%左右，如果再考虑一些在 2014 年前投产的小产能将不再具有竞争力而逐渐关停，市占率则会超过 60%。 （2）成本端：纯碱价格大幅上涨可能性小，天然气气源供应问题将改善。我们预计 2019 年受到下游需求的制约下，纯碱价格出现大幅上涨的概率不大。天然气方面，我们认为国内气源供给问题长期有望改善，叠加天然气市场化定价改革，终端气价下行是长期趋势。 （3）双玻组件渗透率提升拉动玻璃需求增长。我们测算其他条件不变时，双玻渗透率上升至30%时，玻璃原片需求量较渗透率为5%时上升14.73%。  2019 年玻璃价格底已过，行业抵御下行周期能力强，需求上行时有弹性。 2019 年，我们测算新增产能和冷修产能的复产对玻璃产量的增长贡献在12%，且新增产量多数在下半年贡献。因此，我们判断在保守装机预测下（117GW，同比增长 11%），光伏玻璃均价有望回升至 26 元/平米。如果实际装机超过保守情况下的预测，再叠加双玻渗透率的有效提升，我们认为玻璃价格将大概率出现明显上涨，全年均价有望超过 26 元/平米。  投资建议：我们推荐规模领先，产能扩张计划饱满的信义光能（968.HK）和适时的产能扩张稳固行业地位的福莱特玻璃（6865.HK）。 风险提示：1、国内光伏补贴政策调整严厉；2、电站补贴持续拖欠使运营商现金流断裂情况加剧；3、海外需求不及预期；4、海外国家出台严厉的贸易制裁 光伏玻璃：双寡头竞争格局已定，看好 2019 年量价齐升 2019 年 03 月 02 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 - 2 - 海外行业深度研究报告 Overweight （Initiation） Solar Glass Contact Yunji Che cheyunji@xyzq.com.cn Analyst Xiaoli Yu yuxiaoli@xyzq.com.cn SAC: S0190518020003 SFC: AXK331 In 2019, the domestic demand of PV installations is not clear, but it is unlikely to see a sharp decline. The overseas demand is recovering, and it is expected to reach a high level. Since the current subsidy policy has not been issued, most projects cannot be carried out in advance except some policy-supported residential solar projects and projects were not connected to the grid at the end of last year. Therefore, we believe that the scale of domestic PV installations in 2019 is unlikely to exceed those in 2018. However, considering the 3 billion subsidies can support at least 25 GW installation capacity, and there exists historical quotas of 3-5GW, poverty-alleviation projects of 1-2GW and grid parity projects of more than 5GW, the total PV installations are unlikely to fall sharply. On overseas demand side, it recovers with new installations of 61GW in 2018, a 32.6% growth year-on-year. At the same time, the scale of new solar markets is rising. We expect 16 markets with more than 1 GW installation in 2019, suggesting PV demand is no longer dependent on a few large markets. According to Bloomberg NEF’s forecast, in the conservative case, the global installed capacity in 2019, 2020 and 2021 would reach 117GW, 127GW and 130GW respectively. In the neutral case, it is 125GW, 137GW and 141GW, while in the optimistic case, it is 133GW, 146GW and 152GW. Domestic solar glass enterprises have basically replaced overseas enterprises through the development in the last ten years. Since 2006, the domestic photovoltaic glass has replaced the imports. After 2013, domestic photovoltaic glass production capacity has taken up more than 70% of the global total capacity with the increase of capacity concentration. According to calculation, the top five solar glass producers accounted for about 63% of the global solar glass production capacity in 2013, which has increased to over 75% at the end of 2018. We believe that the future development trend of the photovoltaic glass industry is that leading companies will continue to expand market shares. (1) The duopoly pattern has been shaped. We expect that the market share of Xinyi Solar and Flat Glass will reach 60% by the end of 2020. Considering the shut-down of some uncompetitive small companies with low production capacity, their market share will exceed 60%. (2) From cost side, the possibility of a sharp rise in soda ash price is quite small, and the supply of natural gas sources will improve. We expect that under the constraints of downstream demand in 2019, there is little chance that the price of soda ash rise sharply. In terms of natural gas, we believe that the situation of domestic gas supply is expected to be ameliorated, and the terminal gas price will go down in the long run with the domestic reform of natural gas market pricing mechanism. (3) The increasing market share of double-glass modules will stimulate demands for glass. Suppose other conditions are stable, the demand for the original glass increased by 14.73% when the double glass’ m...