能源与公用事业行业：燃气前景乐观，油服景气依旧，光伏制造看好寡头，风电运营商静待补贴-20191110-兴业证券-45页.pdf

请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 海外研 究 行业深度研究报告 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 能源与公用事业 ＃investSuggestion＃ 推荐 ( ＃investSuggestionChange＃ 维持 ） 重点公司 重点公司 评级 华润燃气 买入 中国燃气 买入 新奥能源 买入 昆仑能源 买入 中集安瑞科 买入 中海油田服务 未评级 安东油田服务 买入 华油能源 未评级 宏华集团 买入 信义光能 买入 福莱特玻璃 买入 大全新能源 审慎增持 晶科能源 审慎增持 新天绿色能源 买入 龙源电力 买入 华电福新 买入 ＃relatedReport＃ 相关报告 中国油服行业：尚处周期复苏的前半程_20181023 LNG 进口推动储运装备景气，城市燃气运营商长期配置价值高_20180510 海外能源、公用事业、工业研究 ＃emailAuthor＃ 分析师： 余小丽 兴业证券经济与金融研究院 yuxiaoli@xyzq.com.cn SFC：AXK331 SAC：S0190518020003 联系人： 车昀佶 cheyunji@xyzq.com.cn SAC：S0190118090213 ＃assAuthor＃ 投资要点 ＃summary＃。  天然气：需求保持较高增速，国家管网公司成立长期有利于大的城燃公司。今年 1-9 月中国天然气表观消费增速较去年有所下滑，但仍然维持双位数，大型全国性的城燃公司售气量仍然保持高于行业的增速。我们认为，按照当前天然气需求情况来看，即使冬季采暖季出现需要采购合同外气量的情况，由于整体天然气供给较前两年充足，价格上浮也不会很大，城燃公司成本端难有大的压力。即将成立的国家管道公司将会有利于未来中国气源的多样性，长期引导上、中游气源成本下降。 城燃运营公司仍受益于销气量增长。建议关注：华润燃气（1193.HK）、中国燃气（384.HK）、新奥能源（2688.HK）和昆仑能源。LNG 进口及中国加大储气能力建设促进设备商需求。建议关注：中集安瑞科（3899.HK）。  油服：中国油服行业景气度高，国内油服公司已明显复苏。 全球油服行业自 2016 年触底后踏入复苏周期，主要大型勘探开发公司都在逐步提升资本开支。另外，中国市场自 2018 年下半年开始正在加大油气勘探开发力度，2019 年制定了“七年行动计划”以大力提升油气自产量。受此促进下，中石油、中石化、中海油在勘探与生产业务的资本开支已经明显增加，而且我们认为短期内将会继续保持稳定增长。2017 年开始至今，我们已经看到一些国内油服公司在手订单数量均持续明显提升，显示行业回暖，而行业估值仍处底部。 投资建议：在行业仍处复苏过程中，我们认为可以关注国内技术实力、服务能力领先的油服公司。建议关注：中海油田服务（2338.HK）、安东油田服务（3337.HK）、华油能源（3337.HK）、宏华集团（0196.HK）。  新能源光伏：2020 精选产业链竞争格局较好的环节。 硅料：行业 2020 年新增产能少，单晶用料价格有望保持稳健。从行业的产能规划来看，硅料新增产能的投放已经基本完成。尽管整体装机需求较难确定，但是主要单晶硅片生产商的投产计划十分饱满，硅料单晶用料价格有望保持稳健。我们推荐刚刚完成新产能投产的大全新能源（DQ.N）。 光伏玻璃：2020 年开始新产能持续加码，长期竞争格局优异。信义光能（968.HK）和福莱特玻璃（6865.HK）占据行业领先优势，主要体现在由规模效应和长时间的技术积累带来的成本端的优势上。我们预计这两大企业在 2020 年末光伏玻璃行业的市占率将超过 60%，双寡头格局已经成型。  新能源风电：运营商仍待价值重估。 2019-2020 中国风电行业主要完成存量项目的抢装。我们预计主要的风电运营上市公司在2019-2020年风电投运规模将较2017-2018两年大幅提升，同时结构上更加向规模大的央企子公司集中。补贴回收预计短期内不会加速，使运营商账面应收电价补贴款持续扩大，但近期华能新能源私有化引发板块关注度提升。 投资建议：关注受应收账款影响小的风电运营商。建议关注：新天绿色能源（956.HK）、华电福新（816.HK）和龙源电力（916.HK）。 风险提示：1、油价大幅下跌；2、清洁能源政策调整；3、国内油气开采政策调整；4、光伏补贴政策出现重大调整；5、可再生能源补贴持续延迟发放 燃气前景乐观，油服景气依旧， 光伏制造看好寡头，风电运营商静待补贴 2019 年 11 月 10 日 23244981/43348/20191111 11:10 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 - 2 - 海外行业深度研究报告 Overweight （Maintained） Energy and Utilities Contact Yunji Che cheyunji@xyzq.com.cn SAC：S0190118090213 Analyst Xiaoli Yu yuxiaoli@xyzq.com.cn SAC: S0190518020003 SFC: AXK331 Natural gas: Demand maintains high growth, and the establishment of the national pipeline company is beneficial to the large gas distributors. From Jan to Sep this year, the apparent growth rate of China's natural gas consumption has declined compared with last year, but it still maintains double digits. The sales volume growth of large gas distributors still keeps higher than that of the whole industry. As the overall natural gas supply is sufficient compared with the previous two years, the purchase price will not rise much, and the cost of the gas distributors is difficult to have pressure. The upcoming national pipeline company will be conducive to the diversity of China's gas sources and will guide the cost of gas sources goes down in the long run. Gas distributors still benefit from increased gas sales. Suggested concerns: China Resources Gas (1193.HK), China Gas (384.HK), ENN Energy (2688.HK) and Kunlun Energy. LNG imports and China's increased gas storage capacity will promote the demand of equipment manufacturers. Suggested attention: CIMC Enric (3899.HK). Oil service: China's oil service industry is in prosperity, and the domestic oil service company has recovered significantly. The global oil service industry has entered the recovery cycle since it bottomed out in 2016, and major large-scale exploration companies are gradually increasing their capex. In addition, the Chinese market has been increasing oil and gas exploration since the second half of 2018. In 2019, the “Seven-Year Action Plan” was formulated to boost oil and gas production. Consequently, the capex for exploration and production of PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC have increased significantly, and we believe that it will continue to maintain steady growth in the short term. Since the beginning of 2017, we have seen that the number of orders in the domestic oil service companies has continued to increase significantly, indicating that the industry is picking up, while the industry valuation is still at the bottom. Investment suggestion: In the process of the industry still recovering, we believe that we can pay attention to the oil service company with leading domestic technical strength and service capability. Suggested concerns: China Oilfield Services (2338.HK), Anton Oilfield Services (3337.HK), SPT Energy (3337.HK), Honghua Group (0196.HK). Solar: selected choice in industry chain in 2020. Polysilicon: The industry will have less new capacity in 2020, and the price of polysilicon for mono is expected to remain stable. From the perspective of the industry's capacity planning, the new capacity of polysilicon has been basically completed. Although the overall installed demand is more difficult to determine, the production plans of major mono wafer manufacturers are very full, and the prices of polysilicon for mono are expected to remain s...